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Read Article NBA first basket picks and predictions for Wednesday, December 31, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/31.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Wednesday, December 31, 2025—are live with the Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections make use of detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Shaedon Sharpe lead Wednesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 31, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 18.4% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 16.6% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 16.3% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 15.4% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 15.0% |
| Jonas Valanciunas | Nuggets | 14.0% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 13.6% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 13.0% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Bulls | 12.8% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 12.6% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 12.6% |
| Chet Holmgren | Thunder | 12.3% |
| Stephon Castle | Spurs | 12.2% |
| Deni Avdija | Trail Blazers | 11.7% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 11.6% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 31, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 5.2% | +800 | 16.3% |
| Tre Johnson | Wizards | 2.2% | +1000 | 11.3% |
| Jonas Valanciunas | Nuggets | 1.5% | +700 | 14.0% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 1.2% | +480 | 18.4% |
| Deni Avdija | Trail Blazers | 0.6% | +800 | 11.7% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/31.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Wednesday, December 31, 2025, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Shaedon Sharpe lead our first basket projections, with Sharpe shaping as the strongest value play at +800. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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