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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, December 30, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/30.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Tuesday, December 30, 2025—are live with the Clippers' Kawhi Leonard projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Leonard, Jaylen Brown and Luka Doncic lead Tuesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also feature tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 30, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 15.0% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 14.5% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 14.3% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 13.0% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 12.9% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 12.8% |
| Lauri Markkanen | Jazz | 12.7% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 12.5% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 12.5% |
| Keyonte George | Jazz | 11.7% |
| Maxime Raynaud | Kings | 11.7% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 11.2% |
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 11.1% |
| James Harden | Clippers | 10.9% |
| Derrick White | Celtics | 10.7% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 30, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Walsh | Celtics | 2.4% | +1600 | 8.3% |
| Maxime Raynaud | Kings | 2.1% | +950 | 11.7% |
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 2.0% | +1000 | 11.1% |
| Derrick White | Celtics | 1.6% | +1000 | 10.7% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 1.4% | +800 | 12.5% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 1.1% | +750 | 12.8% |
| Santi Aldama | Grizzlies | 0.7% | +950 | 10.2% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 0.5% | +1100 | 8.8% |
| Cedric Coward | Grizzlies | 0.4% | +900 | 10.4% |
| Payton Pritchard | Celtics | 0.3% | +1100 | 8.6% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 0.2% | +600 | 14.5% |
| Precious Achiuwa | Kings | 0.0% | +1100 | 8.3% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/30.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Tuesday, December 30, 2025, Kawhi Leonard, Jaylen Brown and Luka Doncic lead our first basket projections, while Jordan Walsh shapes as the strongest value play at +1600. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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