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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Monday, December 15, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/15.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Monday, December 15, 2025—are live with the Nuggets' Nikola Jokic projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Jokic, Jaylen Brown and Kawhi Leonard lead Monday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also spotlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 15, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 14.7% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 14.4% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 14.1% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 14.1% |
| Anthony Davis | Mavericks | 13.7% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 13.6% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 13.6% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 13.6% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 13.4% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 13.4% |
| Lauri Markkanen | Jazz | 12.6% |
| Keyonte George | Jazz | 12.3% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 11.4% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 11.2% |
| Tyler Herro | Heat | 11.2% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 15, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 2.3% | +750 | 14.1% |
| Immanuel Quickley | Raptors | 2.0% | +1000 | 11.1% |
| Jaylen Wells | Grizzlies | 1.3% | +1100 | 9.7% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 1.1% | +900 | 11.1% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 0.6% | +850 | 11.2% |
| Santi Aldama | Grizzlies | 0.4% | +900 | 10.4% |
| Amen Thompson | Rockets | 0.2% | +950 | 9.8% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 0.2% | +650 | 13.5% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/15.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Monday, December 15, 2025, Nikola Jokic, Jaylen Brown and Kawhi Leonard lead our first basket projections, with Leonard shaping as the strongest value play at +750. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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