Michigan vs. Illinois prediction: Why Illinois is favored to win men's college basketball matchup [2/27/2026]

Illinois will face Michigan, in what is expected to be a close men's college basketball game, at State Farm Center on Friday, commencing at 8:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced college basketball model gives Illinois a slight edge with a 53% win probability over Michigan.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's Michigan vs. Illinois matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.

Michigan vs. Illinois prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's NCAA basketball matchup between Michigan and Illinois 10,000 times as part of our men's college basketball predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Illinois a 53% chance of defeating Michigan. Our predicted final score has Illinois winning 80-79.

According to our model, Illinois (+1.5) has a 58% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 159.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

Michigan vs. Illinois odds

We have researched the best men's college basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Michigan vs. Illinois picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: