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Lorenzo Sonego vs. Ignacio Buse prediction, odds, picks for ATP Italian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Sonego vs Buse predictions for ATP Italian Open.
Lorenzo Sonego will square off with Ignacio Buse in the round of 128 at the ATP Rome event on Thursday.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven tennis model projects Ignacio Buse as the most likely winner of the Sonego vs. Buse match.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Sonego vs. Buse prediction: Who will win and advance to the second round?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's Sonego-Buse men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives Buse a 57% chance of winning against Sonego at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Buse has a 53% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Sonego (+2.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 22.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Ignacio Buse odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Sonego | Buse |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +146 | -166 |
| First Set | +130 | -164 |
| Game Spread | +2.5 (-112) | -2.5 (-118) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-112) | u22.5 (-118) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Sonego vs. Buse picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sonego | +146 |
| First Set | Buse | -112 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 22.5 total games.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Sonego vs. Buse updates and essential details
The ATP Italian Open match between Lorenzo Sonego and Ignacio Buse is scheduled to begin on Thursday at 1:00 PM ET.
- Who: Lorenzo Sonego vs. Ignacio Buse
- Date: Thursday, May 7, 2026
- Approx. Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 128
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Ignacio Buse, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat Lorenzo Sonego at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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