Home Run Bets: Three pitchers to target for home run picks on Saturday, August 8th

A 15-game MLB betting slate gets underway on Saturday afternoon, August 8th, and there are some excellent matchups for home run parlays on the board based on our MLB predictions data from the Dimers Pro model.

Based on 1000s of simulations on every MLB game utilizing datapoints like pitching matchups, weather and player trends, our models power everything from the best MLB props to today's top home run picks.

Every one of our MLB betting tools is included in a Dimers Pro subscription, available at weekly, monthly and annual tiers, which you can try for 3 days on us with a free trial.

To find today's pitching targets, we've utilized a three-step process:

1. Identify the starters most likely to give up runs in Dimers' pitcher projections

2. Compare that list to recent pitcher performance across the league

3. Rank Dimers' top home run hitter probabilities from the opposing team

That flow has led us to these three pitchers to anchor your home run parlay picks on Saturday. For a more in-depth strategy on building home run parlays, check out our Home Run betting guide.

Gerrit Cole (NYY) vs. Braves

Matchup: Braves vs. Yankees

Time: 3:05 PM ET

Gerrit Cole has been better over his past two starts without a home run allowed, but has been leaking home runs at a 1.00 HR/9 clip since July 1.

9 of his 11 homers allowed have come against lefties, a potential problem against an Atlanta lineup that's lefty-heavy at the top.

Dimers' pitcher projections for Saturday, August 8th.

The Braves arrive red-hot in the power department, with three hitters posting 4+ home runs over the past two weeks, led by Matt Olson's MLB-best 7 in that stretch.

Dimers projects Cole for 2.59 earned runs today, sixth-most among today's starters, a notable contrast against opposing starter Chris Sale.

Braves top HR hitters: Matt Olson (15.3%), Ronald Acuña Jr. (15.0%), Austin Riley (14.7%).

Aaron Nola (PHI) vs. Blue Jays

Matchup: Blue Jays vs. Phillies

Time: 6:05 PM ET

Aaron Nola has been one of the most homer-prone starters in baseball since July 1, posting the third-highest HR/9 in that span at 2.31, and his 28 home runs allowed this season are tied for the most in MLB.

He's been vulnerable to right-handed bats, giving up 10 homers in just 47.2 innings against the side, which lines up poorly against a Blue Jays lineup stacked with righties at the top of the order.

He's gone deep-ball-free in just one of his last 10 starts, and has allowed multiple home runs in seven of those outings.

Our model backs up his volatility, projecting Nola for 2.57 earned runs today, seventh-highest among all starting pitchers on the slate.

Blue Jays top HR hitters: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (14.3%), Kazuma Okamoto (12.9%), George Springer (12.4%).

Kyle Freeland (COL) vs. Cardinals

Matchup: Rockies vs. Cardinals

Time: 7:15 PM ET

Kyle Freeland projects for the roughest day of any starting pitcher on the slate, with a slate-worst 3.05 earned runs and 6.48 hits allowed per the Dimers model.

As a lefty, he's been almost exclusively hurt by right-handed hitters, surrendering 19 of his 21 home runs this season to RHB, and St. Louis' projected lineup features seven right-handed hitters.

Freeland's barrel rate allowed sits in the bottom 10th percentile of MLB, a red flag for hard, elevated contact, allowing 7 HR over his past six starts.

Cardinals top HR hitters: Nolan Velázquez (14.1%), Alec Burleson (13.4%), Iván Herrera (12.5%).

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