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Read Article Giants vs. Mets prediction: Mets favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [9/5/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 59.8% win probability for the Mets at Citi Field.
The New York Mets and San Francisco Giants will lock horns in MLB action at Citi Field on Saturday, starting at 4:10 PM ET.
The Mets will have Zac Thornton (3-4, 2.94 ERA) as their starting pitcher, pitting him against Anthony Molina (2-0, 3.77 ERA) for the Giants.
Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Mets as the most likely winner in this Giants vs. Mets prediction.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Giants vs. Mets prediction and odds
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's MLB matchup between the Giants and Mets, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Mets a 59.8% chance of beating the Giants.
According to our model, the Giants (+1.5) have a 57.6% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 52.3% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Giants +1.5 (-139) / Mets -1.5 (+138)
- Moneyline: Giants +150, Mets -153
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 (+115/-113)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Mets -1.5 @ 42¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Giants @ +150 via BetRivers
- Total: Over 8.5 @ 47¢ via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Saturday's MLB action between the Mets and Giants at Citi Field is scheduled to start at 4:10 PM ET.
- Who: San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets
- Date: Saturday, September 5, 2026
- Time: 4:10 PM ET/1:10PM PT
- Venue: Citi Field
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 59.8% win probability, will likely beat the Giants in Saturday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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