Will MLB's hottest hitters keep streaking in September?

It's the final month of the regular season in MLB, with just weeks left before the postseason and the final run to the World Series begins.

As we turn the calendar to September, we look at which hitters performed best through the month of August, setting up strong second-half runs, and whether or not they'll start off just as hot this month.

Using our MLB predictions as well as our MLB player props and MLB player projections, here's what the data says about these six players tonight:

Home run leaders in August

AL - Pete Alonso (Orioles)

Alonso mashed 9 home runs in August alone, a binge that pushed his season total to 32, comfortably into MLB's top 10.

This series sees the Orioles vs. the Rockies in Coors Field, still one of the sport's most homer-friendly parks, ranking 4th in runs per game and 2.62 HR per contest.

Facing Rockies starter Gabriel Hughes, who our pitcher projections show for a night-worst 3.17 earned runs allowed and only 10.9 outs recorded before Colorado's shaky bullpen takes over, Alonso grades out as the model's top home run threat on the entire slate at 27.1%.

Fair odds sit at +270, and with HardRock offering best odds of +300 as of publishing, that's a real gap over that 25% implied probability, one the wider market seems to see too, with DraftKings pricing him similarly on tonight's home run boards.

That combination of edge and external confirmation makes Alonso a clean, model-backed bet to go deep and stay hot.

Our HR edge on Pete Alonso.

NL - Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs)

PCA's 14 home runs in August were part of a month so absurd, that only three other players have matched his marks of 12-plus homers, 25-plus RBI, and 6-plus steals in the last 50 years, and it's made him a runaway NL MVP favorite (as short as -1500, with Ohtani a distant second at +750).

Tonight's Cubs, fresh off a nine-homer outburst in Sunday's 17-3 rout of Milwaukee, draw Brewers lefty Robert Gasser, who's been stingy against left-handed bats specifically (just 2 HR allowed in 28.2 innings) even with 13 homers surrendered on the year overall, and Gasser projects for a middling 2.44 earned runs on the night. 

That seemingly caps PCA's individual home run chances, with our home run projections placing him third on his own team at 15.7%, with fair odds of +535 well south of the +310 he's being offered at.

The bigger signal from Dimers is on the Cubs side as a whole: the model likes Chicago's moneyline and run line, pointing to another productive night from the trio of Crow-Armstrong, Alex Bregman, and Seiya Suzuki.

For those looking to back Pete straight up with an edge, you'll find an edge on one of his standout categories from August in our best MLB props, just not in the power department.

Hits leaders in August

AL - Chandler Simpson (Rays)

Simpson's MLB-leading 41 hits in just 107 at-bats have been built on pure contact and game-breaking speed, and that same skill set made him baseball's stolen base leader last month as well with 11.

He projects as the single most likely hitter on the board to record a hit in tonight's game vs. the Mets (59.3%, with a 25.7% shot at two or more) against LHP Sean Manaea, who's held opposing lefties to just a .235 average, and projects for just 4.35 hits tonight.

Per our model and the value identified in our best MLB props, the sharper angle is that other hot market for Simpson, his stolen base line, where he gets a 35.8% probability with +280 still available against a fair price closer to +180.

With a lower-than-usual hit probability and since Simpson can reach base via a walk, HBP, or fielder's choice without needing a hit at all, the steals market is where the true value lives tonight.

How our value on Chandler Simpson varies across the books.

NL - Geraldo Perdomo (Diamondbacks)

Perdomo's 36 hits keep him narrowly atop the NL leaderboard, but the surface number masks a rough season underneath: he sits outside the Top 70 on the season in any major MLB hitting category.

Tonight's draw does him no favors either. Phillies LHP Jesus Luzardo projects near the top of the slate across the board (2.12 ER, 4.38 hits allowed, 5.18 strikeouts), and the model has knocked Perdomo down to a modest 52.7% hit probability with just 16.9% for multiple hits.

With several edges found on positive Luzardo props, including the under on hits allowed, already carrying standalone model value, this looks like a matchup to fade Perdomo individually and look elsewhere in our Phillies-Diamondbacks prediction for tonight's edge.

RBI leaders in August

AL - Jac Caglianone (Royals)

Caglianone was featured in our article around MLB's surging young players, promptly exploding for a career game, 5 hits, a HR, and 6 RBI in a single game that evening, during an August that netted him 26 RBI overall.

He's built an .847 OPS this year and has hit 16 of his 23 home runs against right-handers, which sets up nicely against Marlins righty Tyler Phillips (3-6, 3.59 ERA), a pitcher who's been notably worse against left-handed opponents across the board.

Caglianone doesn't carry an individual RBI edge in the model at this price, but he's one of four Royals projected at 28% or better to drive in a run tonight, and with Dimers finding outright value on the Moneyline in our Royals-Marlins prediction, Caglianone is the clearest single-player funnel for that team outcome to hit.

Dimers' edge on the Royals vs. Marlins as seen in the Dimers App.

NL - Alex Bregman (Cubs)

Bregman's August power surge, 12 home runs and 30 RBI for the month, came to a climax on Monday with a three-homer, franchise-record-setting eruption against Milwaukee that pushed his season total to 23 long balls, his second three-homer game last month.

He's right back in that same favorable Brewers matchup tonight, projecting as the fourth-likeliest player on the Cubs to drive in a run at 31.7% with a strong 14.0% shot at another homer to boot.

His RBI number isn't where the real signal is, though. Bregman carries one of Dimers' top individual prop edges across all of tonight's MLB slate in the total bases market, making him a player worth building around beyond just the box-score projections.

Check out our full Cubs-Brewers prediction for more.

Roundup

Pete Crow-Armstrong and Jac Caglianone were this month's standout players, providing the most offense and landing top 3 in multiple hitting categories.

For value, both Cubs players (PCA, Bregman) and Pete Alonso, as well as the rest of the Orioles lineup, look the best targets on Tuesday night.

Find more MLB betting insights via our MLB predictions and more!