MLB picks today: Friday's MLB best bets include Red Sox vs. Orioles play [9/4/2026]

Red Sox vs. Orioles Over 8.5 runs (+108)

• Edge: 5.4%
• Probability: 53.5%
• Matchup: Red Sox vs. Orioles (7:05PM ET)

Our model has identified value on Over 8.5 runs in Red Sox vs. Orioles at +108 odds. A 53.5% probability produces an edge of 5.4%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.

Yankees vs. Padres Over 7.5 runs (+104)

• Edge: 5.3%
• Probability: 54.3%
• Matchup: Yankees vs. Padres (9:40PM ET)

Yankees vs. Padres over 7.5 runs carries a 5.3% edge and a probability of 54.3% at +104 odds, according to our model.

Athletics vs. Mariners Over 7.5 runs (+108)

• Edge: 4.8%
• Probability: 52.9%
• Matchup: Athletics vs. Mariners (10:10PM ET)

Athletics vs. Mariners Over 7.5 runs at +108 odds shows a 4.8% edge, supported by a 52.9% probability in simulations.

Rays vs. Rangers over 8.5 runs (+113)

• Edge: 4.5%
• Probability: 51.5%
• Matchup: Rays vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET)

A 4.5% edge and 51.5% probability make Rays vs. Rangers over 8.5 runs a value play in the Rays vs. Rangers matchup, per our model.

Diamondbacks vs. Astros Over 8.5 runs (-113)

• Edge: 4.2%
• Probability: 57.2%
• Matchup: Diamondbacks vs. Astros (8:10PM ET)

Diamondbacks vs. Astros Over 8.5 runs at -113 odds presents a 4.2% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 57.2%.

Braves vs. Phillies Over 6.5 runs (-113)

• Edge: 4.1%
• Probability: 57.2%
• Matchup: Braves vs. Phillies (6:40PM ET)

Our model finds value on Over 6.5 runs in Braves vs. Phillies at -113 odds, supported by an edge of 4.1%.

Angels vs. Pirates Over 8.5 runs (+113)

• Edge: 3.9%
• Probability: 50.8%
• Matchup: Angels vs. Pirates (6:45PM ET)

Our model has uncovered value on Angels vs. Pirates Over 8.5 runs at +113 odds. A 50.8% probability produces a 3.9% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.

Reds +1.5 (-106)

• Edge: 3.8%
• Probability: 55.3%
• Matchup: Brewers vs. Reds (6:10PM ET)

A 3.8% edge on a 55.3% probability makes Reds +1.5 at -106 odds a solid value play in today's Brewers vs. Reds matchup.

Braves -1.5 (+190)

• Edge: 3.5%
• Probability: 38%
• Matchup: Braves vs. Phillies (6:40PM ET)

Our model projects value on Braves -1.5 at +190 odds. A 38% probability produces a 3.5% edge, making Braves the favorable side in today's matchup.

Giants ML (+170)

• Edge: 3.4%
• Probability: 40.5%
• Matchup: Giants vs. Mets (7:10PM ET)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Giants to defeat Mets at +170 odds shows a 40.5% probability and a 3.4% edge.

MLB best bets summary: Friday, 9/4/2026

As of 1:27AM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:

List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [9/4/2026]

• Brewers vs. Reds (6:10PM ET, Friday)
• Braves vs. Phillies (6:40PM ET, Friday)
• Angels vs. Pirates (6:45PM ET, Friday)
• Red Sox vs. Orioles (7:05PM ET, Friday)
• Giants vs. Mets (7:10PM ET, Friday)
• Cubs vs. Marlins (7:10PM ET, Friday)
• Twins vs. White Sox (7:40PM ET, Friday)
• Rays vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET, Friday)
• D-Backs vs. Astros (8:10PM ET, Friday)
• Blue Jays vs. Royals (8:10PM ET, Friday)
• Cardinals vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET, Friday)
• Yankees vs. Padres (9:40PM ET, Friday)
• Nationals vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET, Friday)
• Athletics vs. Mariners (10:10PM ET, Friday)

Conclusion

Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for September 4, 2026, featuring plays such as over 8.5 runs in the Red Sox vs. Orioles matchup and over 7.5 runs in the Yankees vs. Padres matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are rooted in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.