Alaves vs. Real Madrid Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Alaves vs. Real Madrid La Liga match on December 21, 2023 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro for full access.
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LA LIGA
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LA LIGA
Real Madrid
1
0
Dec 21, 3:30 PM ET Estadio de Mendizorroza (Vitoria-Gasteiz)
Alaves
Dec 21, 3:30 PM ET Estadio de Mendizorroza (Vitoria-Gasteiz)
AlavesALA
Score Summary
Real MadridRMA
N. Fernandez (54')
Red Card icon
Lucas (90')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Alaves
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Real Madrid
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
90'
Yellow Card
N. Tenaglia (Alaves) cautioned
90'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Real Madrid by Lucas, assisted by T. Kroos
1-0
90'
Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: D. Ceballos replaces Rodrygo
85'
Yellow Card
J. Bellingham (Real Madrid) cautioned
83'
Yellow Card
A. Guevara (Alaves) cautioned
78'
Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: N. Tenaglia replaces A. Gorosabel
78'
Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: K. Garcia replaces S. Omorodion
76'
Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: Joselu replaces B. Diaz
72'
Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: A. Sola replaces A. Rebbach
59'
Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: J. Lopez replaces R. Duarte
59'
Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: I. Hagi replaces J. Guridi
55'
Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: A. Tchouameni replaces L. Modric
54'
Red Card
N. Fernandez (Real Madrid) sent off with a straight red card
45'
Yellow Card
R. Duarte (Alaves) cautioned
39'
Yellow Card
C. Ancelotti (Real Madrid) cautioned

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Alaves vs. Real Madrid: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Alaves vs. Real Madrid
  • Date: Thursday, December 21, 2023
  • Time: 3:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Alaves +500, Real Madrid -175, draw +320
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-117/-104)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Alaves: 18.8%
  • Real Madrid: 58.7%
  • Draw: 22.5%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' La Liga data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Alaves 0-1 Real Madrid (11.5%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

Want Dimers' best bets for this matchup?

The most probable outcome isn't always the wisest wager.

The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

Join Dimers Pro to unlock complete betting analysis for this matchup across every major market, including:

  • Today's best bets
  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

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Who will win Alaves vs. Real Madrid? Prediction & correct score

Real Madrid is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 58.7%.

The most likely correct score is Alaves 0-1 Real Madrid.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro to unlock today's best bets and complete betting analysis for this matchup.

Responsible gambling

Dimers' predictions and betting insights are designed to help inform your betting decisions. If you're betting on Alaves vs. Real Madrid, always gamble responsibly and within your means. For support, you can visit our responsible gambling resources.