Sweden vs. Ukraine Prediction, Picks & Odds

Dimers' Sweden vs. Ukraine prediction for the World Cup qualifying play-off match on March 26, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets.
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WORLD CUP
Sweden
3
1
Estadi Ciutat de València (Valencia)
Ukraine
Estadi Ciutat de València (Valencia)
UkraineUKR
Score Summary
SwedenSWE
M. Ponomarenko (90')
Soccer ball icon
V. Gyokeres (6')
Soccer ball icon
V. Gyokeres (51')
Soccer ball icon
V. Gyokeres (pen.) (73')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Ukraine
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Sweden
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Ukraine by M. Ponomarenko
    3-1
  2. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sweden: M. Svanberg replaces A. Elanga
  3. 85'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ukraine: M. Shaparenko replaces Y. Yarmolyuk
  4. 77'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ukraine: M. Ponomarenko replaces G. Sudakov
  5. 77'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sweden: D. Svensson replaces G. Gudmundsson
  6. 77'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sweden: L. Bergvall replaces Y. Ayari
  7. 75'
    Yellow Card
    K. Nordfeldt (Sweden) cautioned
  8. 73'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Sweden by V. Gyokeres (pen.)
    3-0
  9. 71'
    Yellow Card
    A. Trubin (Ukraine) cautioned
  10. 60'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ukraine: R. Yaremchuk replaces V. Vanat
  11. 60'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ukraine: O. Ocheretko replaces O. Zubkov
  12. 60'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ukraine: O. Gutsulyak replaces I. Kaliuzhnyi
  13. 56'
    Yellow Card
    O. Tymchyk (Ukraine) cautioned
  14. 51'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Sweden by V. Gyokeres, assisted by K. Nordfeldt
    2-0
  15. 37'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sweden: C. Starfelt replaces I. Hien
  16. 6'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Sweden by V. Gyokeres, assisted by B. Nygren
    1-0

Sweden vs. Ukraine: Match prediction & analysis

Dimers' Sweden vs. Ukraine prediction is powered by a soccer ratings framework applied consistently across every match. We evaluate team strength, recent performance, player involvement, and underlying data signals to deliver clear, data-driven insights.

Match overview

  • Teams: Sweden vs. Ukraine
  • Date: Thursday, March 26, 2026
  • Time: 3:45 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadi Ciutat de València
  • Tournament: FIFA World Cup qualifying play-offs

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Sweden +140, Ukraine +220, draw +225
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (+110/-134)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Sweden: 40.3%
  • Ukraine: 34.2%
  • Draw: 25.5%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' World Cup data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Sweden 1-1 Ukraine (12.1%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

Who will win Sweden vs. Ukraine? Prediction & correct score

Sweden is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 40.3%.

The most likely correct score is Sweden 1-1 Ukraine.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

Get Dimers Pro to unlock today's best bets and complete betting analysis for this matchup.

Responsible gambling

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