Penguins vs. Golden Knights Prediction, Picks & Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for Penguins vs. Golden Knights in the NHL on Saturday, October 17, 2026 including our projected final score and probabilities for the moneyline, puck line, game total, and player props.
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LIVE
2nd 2:12
NHL
Updating LIVE
LIVE
2nd 2:12
Updating LIVE
NHL sport icon
NHL
Penguins
1
:
5
T-Mobile Arena
Golden Knights
T-Mobile Arena
TEAM123T
Penguins
0 1 1
Golden Knights
3 2 5
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Penguins
    <1%
  • Golden Knights
    >99%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Penguins
0 1 1
Golden Knights
3 2 5
P2 17:15 Shot missed by Spencer Stastney
P2 16:46 Shot on goal by Rickard Rakell saved by Adin Hill
P2 16:02 Shot missed by Mitch Marner
P2 13:40 Shot on goal by Kris Letang saved by Adin Hill
P2 12:55 Shot missed by Golden Knights
P2 11:16 Goal scored by Shea Theodore assisted by Brayden McNabb and William Karlsson
P2 09:58 Shot missed by Shea Theodore
P2 08:58 Shot on goal by Andrei Kuzmenko saved by Adin Hill
P2 08:48 Shot missed by Nick Robertson
P2 07:36 Erik Karlsson shot blocked by teammate
P2 07:24 Erik Karlsson shot blocked by Nic Dowd
P2 07:06 Goal scored by Trevor Connelly
P2 05:54 Power play - Goal scored by Sidney Crosby assisted by Tommy Novak and Erik Karlsson
P2 05:15 Shot on goal by Kris Letang saved by Adin Hill
P2 02:13 Raphael Lavoie shot blocked by Spencer Stastney
P2 01:47 Shot on goal by Rasmus Andersson saved by Sergei Murashov
P1 17:38 Power play - Tomas Hertl shot blocked by teammate
P1 17:31 Power play - Trevor Connelly shot blocked by Samuel Girard
P1 16:54 Power play - Shot on goal by Tomas Hertl saved by Sergei Murashov
P1 16:33 Power play - Mitch Marner shot blocked by Blake Lizotte
Play by Play
  1. P2 17:48
    Penguins won faceoff against Golden Knights in neutral zone
  2. P2 17:48
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  3. P2 17:15
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Spencer Stastney
  4. P2 16:54
    Stoppage - Icing
  5. P2 16:46
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Rickard Rakell saved by Adin Hill
  6. P2 16:02
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Mitch Marner
  7. P2 15:03
    Penguins won faceoff against Golden Knights in neutral zone
  8. P2 14:01
    Giveaway by Jack Eichel in offensive zone
  9. P2 13:40
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Kris Letang saved by Adin Hill
  10. P2 12:55
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Golden Knights
  11. P2 11:43
    Giveaway by Kris Letang in offensive zone
  12. P2 11:18
    Penguins won faceoff against Golden Knights in neutral zone
  13. P2 11:16
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Shea Theodore assisted by Brayden McNabb and William Karlsson
    1-5
  14. P2 09:58
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Shea Theodore
  15. P2 09:14
    Jack Eichel won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in offensive zone
  16. P2 09:14
    Penalty to Kaedan Korczak 2 minutes for Misconduct
  17. P2 08:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Andrei Kuzmenko saved by Adin Hill
  18. P2 08:48
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nick Robertson
  19. P2 08:02
    Tomas Hertl won faceoff against Ben Kindel in offensive zone
  20. P2 07:36
    SHOT
    Erik Karlsson shot blocked by teammate
  21. P2 07:24
    SHOT
    Erik Karlsson shot blocked by Nic Dowd
  22. P2 07:06
    Penguins won faceoff against Golden Knights in neutral zone
  23. P2 07:06
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Trevor Connelly
    1-4
  24. P2 05:54
    GOAL
    Power play - Goal scored by Sidney Crosby assisted by Tommy Novak and Erik Karlsson
    1-3
  25. P2 05:33
    Power play - Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Nic Dowd in offensive zone
  26. P2 05:28
    Ben Kindel won faceoff against Jack Eichel in offensive zone
  27. P2 05:28
    Stoppage - Icing
  28. P2 05:15
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Kris Letang saved by Adin Hill
  29. P2 04:27
    Penguins won faceoff against Golden Knights in neutral zone
  30. P2 04:27
    Stoppage - Hand Pass
  31. P2 04:04
    Penguins won faceoff against Golden Knights in neutral zone
  32. P2 04:04
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  33. P2 03:01
    Dylan Coghlan credited with hit on Evgeni Malkin in defensive zone
  34. P2 02:42
    Tomas Hertl credited with hit on Evgeni Malkin in neutral zone
  35. P2 02:31
    Stoppage - Icing
  36. P2 02:13
    SHOT
    Raphael Lavoie shot blocked by Spencer Stastney
  37. P2 02:09
    Penguins won faceoff against Golden Knights in defensive zone
  38. P2 01:50
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  39. P2 01:47
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Rasmus Andersson saved by Sergei Murashov
  40. P2 00:55
    Stoppage - Icing
  41. P2 00:00
    Sidney Crosby won faceoff against William Karlsson in neutral zone
  42. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  43. P1 18:17
    Giveaway by Ville Koivunen in neutral zone
  44. P1 17:46
    Tommy Novak won faceoff against William Karlsson in neutral zone
  45. P1 17:38
    SHOT
    Power play - Tomas Hertl shot blocked by teammate
  46. P1 17:31
    SHOT
    Power play - Trevor Connelly shot blocked by Samuel Girard
  47. P1 16:54
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Tomas Hertl saved by Sergei Murashov
  48. P1 16:33
    SHOT
    Power play - Mitch Marner shot blocked by Blake Lizotte
  49. P1 15:57
    Power play - Tomas Hertl won faceoff against Blake Lizotte in offensive zone
  50. P1 15:47
    Delayed penalty (against the Penguins)
  51. P1 15:32
    William Karlsson won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in defensive zone
  52. P1 14:55
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ben Kindel saved by Adin Hill
  53. P1 13:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Evgeni Malkin saved by Adin Hill
  54. P1 13:21
    Tommy Novak won faceoff against Jack Eichel in offensive zone
  55. P1 13:21
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  56. P1 12:23
    Penguins won faceoff against Golden Knights in neutral zone
  57. P1 12:20
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Elmer Soderblom
  58. P1 12:18
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Connor Dewar saved by Adin Hill
  59. P1 11:40
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Raphael Lavoie saved by Sergei Murashov
  60. P1 10:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Trevor Connelly saved by Sergei Murashov
  61. P1 09:44
    Giveaway by Ivan Barbashev in offensive zone
  62. P1 09:16
    Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Jack Eichel in offensive zone
  63. P1 08:49
    Giveaway by Dylan Coghlan in offensive zone
  64. P1 08:46
    SHOT
    Shot missed by William Karlsson
  65. P1 08:43
    Penguins won faceoff against Golden Knights in neutral zone
  66. P1 08:41
    SHOT
    Shea Theodore shot blocked by Samuel Girard
  67. P1 07:51
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Marc Gatcomb saved by Sergei Murashov
  68. P1 07:11
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Kaedan Korczak saved by Adin Hill
  69. P1 06:55
    Jack Eichel won faceoff against Ben Kindel in defensive zone
  70. P1 05:39
    Sidney Crosby won faceoff against William Karlsson in offensive zone
  71. P1 04:02
    Nic Dowd won faceoff against Blake Lizotte in neutral zone
  72. P1 03:22
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  73. P1 03:20
    SHOT
    Erik Karlsson shot blocked by Rasmus Andersson
  74. P1 02:46
    Jeremy Lauzon credited with hit on Rickard Rakell in defensive zone
  75. P1 02:37
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by William Karlsson saved by Sergei Murashov
  76. P1 01:22
    Nic Dowd credited with hit on Connor Dewar in offensive zone
  77. P1 01:13
    Takeaway by Noah Hanifin in offensive zone
  78. P1 00:46
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Adin Hill
  79. P1 00:00
    Sidney Crosby won faceoff against William Karlsson in neutral zone
Stats
Penguins
STATS
Golden Knights
14Shots on Goal16
43% Faceoff Win % 57%
1/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 1/1
9Penalty Infraction Mins9
7Hits13
6 Shots Blocked 6
15Giveaways14
PenguinsPIT
Golden KnightsVGK
14Shots on Goal16
43% Faceoff Win % 57%
1/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 1/1
9Penalty Infraction Mins9
7Hits13
6 Shots Blocked 6
15Giveaways14

Penguins vs. Golden Knights prediction & analysis

Game overview: NHL Saturday

  • Teams: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Vegas Golden Knights
  • Date: Saturday, October 17, 2026
  • Puck drop: 10:00PM ET
  • Venue: T-Mobile Arena

Current betting odds

  • Puck line: Penguins (+1.5, -125), Golden Knights (-1.5, +122)
  • Moneyline: Penguins +186, Golden Knights -190
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5 goals (-115/+111)

Dimers’ win probabilities

  • Penguins: 37.5%
  • Golden Knights: 62.5%

Our NHL win probabilities come from a machine learning model that assesses each team’s offensive and defensive performance, calculating multiple factors and accounting for OT and shootout chances.

It draws from these projections to forecast probabilities for the moneyline, puck line, and total goals.

Penguins vs. Golden Knights player props & projections

Our highest anytime goalscorer probabilities for this game are:

  • Bryan Rust, Penguins: 30.6%
  • Sidney Crosby, Penguins: 30.4%
  • Mark Stone, Golden Knights: 37.5%
  • Jack Eichel, Golden Knights: 34.3%

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Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Penguins a win probability of 37.5%, while the Golden Knights have a win probability of 62.5%.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Golden Knights are more likely to beat the Penguins in the NHL game at T-Mobile Arena on Saturday.

That is the straight-up read. Whether either side is worth backing depends on the price, which is what our betting model rates.

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