Islanders vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks & Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for Islanders vs. Maple Leafs in the NHL on Saturday, October 17, 2026 including our projected final score and probabilities for the moneyline, puck line, game total, and player props.
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NHL
NHL sport icon
NHL
Islanders
vs.
Scotiabank Arena
Maple Leafs
Scotiabank Arena
Pre-Game Probabilities Last Update:

Moneyline

Moneyline
Win %
  • Islanders
    45.6%
    NovigNovig
  • Maple Leafs
    54.4%
    NovigNovig
Player Props
Islanders
Probability
  • Bo Horvat
    33.2%
  • Matthew Schaefer
    24.1%
  • Emil Heineman
    22.4%
  • Kyle Palmieri
  • Brayden Schenn
Maple Leafs
Probability
  • Auston Matthews
    41.0%
  • William Nylander
    38.7%
  • Kirill Marchenko
    28.5%
  • Jack Roslovic
  • Darren Raddysh

Islanders vs. Maple Leafs prediction & analysis

Game overview: NHL Saturday

  • Teams: NY Islanders Islanders vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
  • Date: Saturday, October 17, 2026
  • Puck drop: 7:00PM ET
  • Venue: Scotiabank Arena

Current betting odds

  • Puck line: Islanders (+1.5, -203), Maple Leafs (-1.5, +194)
  • Moneyline: Islanders +122, Maple Leafs -125
  • Total (Over/Under): 6 goals (-119/+100)

Dimers’ win probabilities

  • Islanders: 45.9%
  • Maple Leafs: 54.1%

Our NHL win probabilities come from a machine learning model that assesses each team’s offensive and defensive performance, calculating multiple factors and accounting for OT and shootout chances.

It draws from these projections to forecast probabilities for the moneyline, puck line, and total goals.

Islanders vs. Maple Leafs player props & projections

Our highest anytime goalscorer probabilities for this game are:

  • Bo Horvat, Islanders: 32.4%
  • Matthew Schaefer, Islanders: 24.6%
  • Auston Matthews, Maple Leafs: 40.4%
  • William Nylander, Maple Leafs: 39.5%

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Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Islanders a win probability of 45.9%, while the Maple Leafs have a win probability of 54.1%.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Maple Leafs are more likely to beat the Islanders in the NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on Saturday.

That is the straight-up read. Whether either side is worth backing depends on the price, which is what our betting model rates.

Responsible gambling

Dimers’ predictions and betting insights are here to inform your decisions, not to make them for you. If you are betting on Islanders vs. Maple Leafs, set your limits in advance and stay within them. For support, visit our responsible gambling resources.

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