Canadiens vs. Lightning Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Canadiens vs. Lightning NHL game on April 29, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL sport icon
NHL
Canadiens
3
2
Benchmark International Arena
Lightning
Benchmark International Arena
TEAM123T
Canadiens
1 1 1 3
Lightning
0 2 0 2
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Canadiens
    100%
  • Lightning
    0%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Canadiens
1 1 1 3
Lightning
0 2 0 2
P3 19:57 Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
P3 19:41 Brayden Point shot blocked by Mike Matheson
P3 19:20 Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Juraj Slafkovský
P3 19:14 Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Jakub Dobes
P3 18:35 Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Jakub Dobes
P3 18:30 Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Jakub Dobes
P3 18:12 Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Jakub Dobes
P3 17:46 Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Jakub Dobes
P3 17:29 Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Jakub Dobes
P3 17:20 Shot on goal by Gage Goncalves saved by Jakub Dobes
P3 16:25 Jake Evans shot blocked by Jake Guentzel
P3 13:21 Lane Hutson shot blocked by J.J. Moser
P3 11:36 Shot missed by Brendan Gallagher
P3 10:54 Kaiden Guhle shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
P3 10:06 Zachary Bolduc shot blocked by teammate
P3 08:09 Brendan Gallagher shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
P3 07:25 Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Mike Matheson
P3 05:01 Shot on goal by Jayden Struble saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 03:53 Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by teammate
P3 02:10 Shot missed by Zemgus Girgensons
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:57
    SHOT
    Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
  3. P3 19:41
    SHOT
    Brayden Point shot blocked by Mike Matheson
  4. P3 19:20
    SHOT
    Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Juraj Slafkovský
  5. P3 19:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Jakub Dobes
  6. P3 18:57
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  7. P3 18:57
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  8. P3 18:35
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Jakub Dobes
  9. P3 18:32
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Phillip Danault in offensive zone
  10. P3 18:30
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Jakub Dobes
  11. P3 18:12
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Jakub Dobes
  12. P3 17:48
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  13. P3 17:46
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Jakub Dobes
  14. P3 17:29
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Jakub Dobes
  15. P3 17:27
    Stoppage
  16. P3 17:20
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Gage Goncalves saved by Jakub Dobes
  17. P3 16:53
    Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in defensive zone
  18. P3 16:53
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
  19. P3 16:25
    SHOT
    Jake Evans shot blocked by Jake Guentzel
  20. P3 15:48
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Kirby Dach in offensive zone
  21. P3 15:48
    Stoppage - Icing
  22. P3 13:58
    Jake Evans won faceoff against Dominic James in defensive zone
  23. P3 13:58
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen - TV timeout
  24. P3 13:21
    SHOT
    Lane Hutson shot blocked by J.J. Moser
  25. P3 12:01
    Jayden Struble credited with hit on Conor Geekie in defensive zone
  26. P3 11:36
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brendan Gallagher
  27. P3 10:54
    SHOT
    Kaiden Guhle shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
  28. P3 10:06
    SHOT
    Zachary Bolduc shot blocked by teammate
  29. P3 08:46
    Brandon Hagel credited with hit on Lane Hutson in offensive zone
  30. P3 08:37
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd - TV timeout
  31. P3 08:09
    SHOT
    Brendan Gallagher shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
  32. P3 07:52
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Dominic James in offensive zone
  33. P3 07:25
    SHOT
    Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Mike Matheson
  34. P3 06:14
    Giveaway by Nikita Kucherov in neutral zone
  35. P3 05:01
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jayden Struble saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  36. P3 03:56
    Jake Evans won faceoff against Dominic James in defensive zone
  37. P3 03:53
    SHOT
    Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by teammate
  38. P3 03:21
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  39. P3 02:10
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Zemgus Girgensons
  40. P3 01:13
    Kirby Dach credited with hit on Emil Lilleberg in offensive zone
  41. P3 01:04
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Alexandre Texier
    3-2
  42. P3 00:24
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in offensive zone
  43. P3 00:22
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Jakub Dobes
  44. P3 00:20
    Stoppage - Skater Puck Frozen
  45. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  46. P2 19:15
    SHOT
    Alexandre Carrier shot blocked by teammate
  47. P2 18:48
    Giveaway by Erik Cernak in defensive zone
  48. P2 18:24
    SHOT
    Kaiden Guhle shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
  49. P2 18:21
    Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  50. P2 18:17
    SHOT
    Jake Evans shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
  51. P2 17:57
    Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  52. P2 17:33
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  53. P2 17:23
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Kirby Dach in neutral zone
  54. P2 17:21
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Jakub Dobes
  55. P2 16:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Josh Anderson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  56. P2 16:26
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Juraj Slafkovský saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  57. P2 15:55
    SHOT
    Kaiden Guhle shot blocked by Max Crozier
  58. P2 15:43
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Dominic James in offensive zone
  59. P2 15:43
    Stoppage - Icing
  60. P2 13:38
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  61. P2 13:29
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mike Matheson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  62. P2 12:03
    Jake Evans won faceoff against Dominic James in defensive zone
  63. P2 11:44
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Jakub Dobes
  64. P2 10:45
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Kirby Dach in neutral zone
  65. P2 10:36
    Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Kirby Dach in defensive zone
  66. P2 10:31
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Kirby Dach in defensive zone
  67. P2 10:09
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Kaiden Guhle saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  68. P2 10:08
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  69. P2 10:06
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Kaiden Guhle
  70. P2 08:59
    Alex Newhook credited with hit on Max Crozier in offensive zone
  71. P2 08:49
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Conor Geekie in defensive zone
  72. P2 08:47
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Jakub Dobes
  73. P2 08:14
    Jake Evans won faceoff against Dominic James in defensive zone
  74. P2 08:11
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
  75. P2 07:46
    Kirby Dach credited with hit on Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  76. P2 07:39
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
  77. P2 07:21
    Josh Anderson credited with hit on Jake Guentzel in offensive zone
  78. P2 07:00
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  79. P2 06:49
    Kirby Dach won faceoff against Gage Goncalves in neutral zone
  80. P2 06:13
    Power play - Darren Raddysh credited with hit on Alexandre Carrier in offensive zone
  81. P2 05:41
    Shorthanded - Phillip Danault won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  82. P2 05:41
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  83. P2 05:08
    Shorthanded - Jake Evans won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  84. P2 05:08
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  85. P2 04:31
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Jake Evans saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  86. P2 04:17
    Canadiens won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in defensive zone
  87. P2 04:12
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Max Crozier saved by Jakub Dobes
  88. P2 03:33
    SHOT
    Jayden Struble shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
  89. P2 03:28
    Kirby Dach won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  90. P2 03:28
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  91. P2 03:09
    SHOT
    Power play - J.J. Moser shot blocked by teammate
  92. P2 01:36
    SHOT
    Power play - Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
  93. P2 01:13
    Shorthanded - Jake Evans won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  94. P2 00:00
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
  95. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  96. P1 18:51
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  97. P1 18:51
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  98. P1 18:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Juraj Slafkovský saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  99. P1 17:52
    Penalty to Kaiden Guhle 2 minutes for Misconduct
  100. P1 17:52
    Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  101. P1 16:07
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Josh Anderson in offensive zone
  102. P1 16:05
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Corey Perry saved by Jakub Dobes
  103. P1 15:03
    Power play - Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Juraj Slafkovský in neutral zone
  104. P1 14:42
    Power play - Giveaway by Dominic James in neutral zone
  105. P1 14:12
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Jakub Dobes
  106. P1 13:40
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot missed by Nick Suzuki
  107. P1 13:18
    SHOT
    Power play - Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Mike Matheson
  108. P1 13:06
    Penalty to Jake Evans 2 minutes for Misconduct
  109. P1 13:06
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  110. P1 12:29
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
  111. P1 11:35
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Josh Anderson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  112. P1 09:43
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Mike Matheson
  113. P1 09:19
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Alexandre Texier
  114. P1 08:33
    Shorthanded - Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Alex Newhook in defensive zone
  115. P1 08:22
    SHOT
    Power play - Ivan Demidov shot blocked by J.J. Moser
  116. P1 07:56
    SHOT
    Power play - Ivan Demidov shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
  117. P1 07:30
    Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Juraj Slafkovský in defensive zone
  118. P1 07:30
    Penalty to Ryan McDonagh 2 minutes for High Sticking (Drawn by Nick Suzuki)
  119. P1 06:25
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  120. P1 06:25
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  121. P1 06:05
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  122. P1 04:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Jakub Dobes
  123. P1 03:40
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Canadiens
  124. P1 01:11
    Nick Suzuki credited with hit on J.J. Moser in offensive zone
  125. P1 00:05
    Juraj Slafkovský credited with hit on Erik Cernak in neutral zone
  126. P1 00:00
    Jake Evans won faceoff against Brayden Point
Stats
Canadiens
STATS
Lightning
24Shots on Goal40
66% Faceoff Win % 34%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/0
8Penalty Infraction Mins6
37Hits23
16 Shots Blocked 18
11Giveaways18
CanadiensMTL
LightningTB
24Shots on Goal40
66% Faceoff Win % 34%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/0
8Penalty Infraction Mins6
37Hits23
16 Shots Blocked 18
11Giveaways18

Canadiens vs. Lightning: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Canadiens vs. Lightning
  • Date: Wednesday, April 29, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at undefined
  • Total (Over/Under): 5.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Canadiens 40¢, Lightning 59¢

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Canadiens: 42%
  • Lightning: 58%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Canadiens a win probability of 42%, while the Lightning have a win probability of 58%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Canadiens in the NHL game at Benchmark International Arena on Wednesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Canadiens vs. Lightning predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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