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Sabres vs. Lightning Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Sabres vs. Lightning NHL game on February 28, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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Sabres
6
2
Mar 1, 12AM Benchmark International Arena
Lightning
Mar 1, 12AM Benchmark International Arena
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
TEAM123T
Sabres
4 1 1 6
Lightning
0 1 1 2
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
SabresBUF
Win %
100%
0%
LightningTB
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Sabres
4 1 1 6
Lightning
0 1 1 2
P3 18:24 Power play - Shot missed by Lightning
P3 18:01 Power play - Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P3 17:41 Power play - Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P3 15:15 Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P3 14:30 Power play - Shot missed by Noah Ostlund
P3 12:19 Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
P3 11:10 Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
P3 08:20 Shorthanded - Zemgus Girgensons shot blocked by Bowen Byram
P3 06:44 Power play - Shot missed by Josh Norris
P3 06:11 Bowen Byram shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
P3 06:04 Shot missed by Beck Malenstyn
P3 05:48 Zemgus Girgensons shot blocked by teammate
P3 05:25 Shot missed by Victor Hedman
P3 04:31 Shot missed by Erik Cernak
P3 02:01 Goal scored by Oliver Bjorkstrand assisted by Jake Guentzel and Nikita Kucherov
P3 01:25 Shot on goal by Emil Lilleberg saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P2 19:28 Dominic James shot blocked by Mattias Samuelsson
P2 18:26 Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P2 17:29 Shot missed by Owen Power
P2 17:28 Shot on goal by Owen Power saved by Jonas Johansson
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
GOALS
ALL
P3 20:00
End of 3rd Period.
P3 19:08
Shorthanded - Tyson Kozak won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
P3 19:08
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
P3 18:24
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Lightning
P3 18:13
Power play - Brayden Point won faceoff against Tyson Kozak in offensive zone
P3 18:01
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P3 17:41
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P3 17:12
Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
P3 17:12
Penalty to Michael Kesselring 2 minutes for Misconduct
P3 16:59
Dominic James won faceoff against Josh Norris in offensive zone
P3 15:51
Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
P3 15:16
Brayden Point won faceoff against Josh Norris in offensive zone
P3 15:15
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P3 15:02
Tyson Kozak won faceoff against Dominic James in neutral zone
P3 14:57
Dominic James won faceoff against Tyson Kozak in neutral zone
P3 14:30
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Noah Ostlund
P3 13:35
Power play - Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Pontus Holmberg in neutral zone
P3 12:48
Power play - Josh Norris won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
P3 12:48
Penalty to Anthony Cirelli 2 minutes for Interference (Drawn by Rasmus Dahlin)
P3 12:19
SHOT
Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
P3 11:10
SHOT
Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
P3 09:54
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 08:20
SHOT
Shorthanded - Zemgus Girgensons shot blocked by Bowen Byram
P3 07:23
Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli credited with hit on Josh Doan in offensive zone
P3 06:44
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Josh Norris
P3 06:23
Power play - Josh Norris won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
P3 06:23
Penalty to Darren Raddysh 2 minutes for Cross Checking (Drawn by Beck Malenstyn)
P3 06:11
SHOT
Bowen Byram shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
P3 06:04
SHOT
Shot missed by Beck Malenstyn
P3 05:51
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Tyson Kozak in offensive zone
P3 05:48
SHOT
Zemgus Girgensons shot blocked by teammate
P3 05:27
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in neutral zone
P3 05:25
SHOT
Shot missed by Victor Hedman
P3 04:31
SHOT
Shot missed by Erik Cernak
P3 03:43
Dominic James won faceoff against Tyson Kozak in neutral zone
P3 03:04
Shorthanded - Dominic James won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in defensive zone
P3 02:24
Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Tage Thompson in defensive zone
P3 02:02
Shorthanded - Brayden Point won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in defensive zone
P3 02:02
Penalty to Jake Guentzel 2 minutes for Misconduct
P3 02:01
GOAL
Goal scored by Oliver Bjorkstrand assisted by Jake Guentzel and Nikita Kucherov
5-2
P3 01:28
Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
P3 01:28
Penalty to Charle-Edouard D'Astous 2 minutes for Misconduct
P3 01:28
Penalty to Alex Tuch 2 minutes for Misconduct
P3 01:25
SHOT
Shot on goal by Emil Lilleberg saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P3 00:50
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
P3 00:38
Stoppage - Offside
P3 00:00
Josh Norris won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
P2 20:00
End of 2nd Period.
P2 19:28
SHOT
Dominic James shot blocked by Mattias Samuelsson
P2 19:27
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P2 19:04
Dominic James won faceoff against Tyson Kozak in offensive zone
P2 18:26
SHOT
Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P2 18:08
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Tage Thompson in neutral zone
P2 18:08
Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
P2 17:29
SHOT
Shot missed by Owen Power
P2 17:28
SHOT
Shot on goal by Owen Power saved by Jonas Johansson
P2 17:14
SHOT
Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P2 16:20
Brayden Point won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in offensive zone
P2 16:20
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P2 16:03
Dominic James won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in neutral zone
P2 15:38
SHOT
Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Mattias Samuelsson
P2 15:35
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P2 14:07
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Alex Tuch
P2 13:25
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 12:58
Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in defensive zone
P2 12:58
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P2 12:31
Shorthanded - Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Tage Thompson in defensive zone
P2 12:31
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P2 12:29
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Tage Thompson saved by Jonas Johansson
P2 12:24
Stoppage - Offside
P2 12:10
Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Josh Norris in defensive zone
P2 11:12
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Rasmus Dahlin saved by Jonas Johansson
P2 10:32
Sabres won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
P2 10:26
Stoppage - TV timeout
P2 10:26
Peyton Krebs won faceoff against Lightning in offensive zone
P2 09:43
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P2 08:09
Mattias Samuelsson credited with hit on Oliver Bjorkstrand in defensive zone
P2 07:40
SHOT
Shot on goal by Zach Metsa saved by Jonas Johansson
P2 07:35
SHOT
Shot on goal by Zach Metsa saved by Jonas Johansson
P2 06:06
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ryan McLeod saved by Jonas Johansson
P2 05:47
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in neutral zone
P2 05:47
Penalty to Rasmus Dahlin 2 minutes for Misconduct
P2 05:47
Penalty to Brayden Point 2 minutes for Misconduct
P2 05:14
SHOT
Shot missed by Gage Goncalves
P2 03:51
Oliver Bjorkstrand credited with hit on Zach Metsa in offensive zone
P2 03:34
Tyson Kozak won faceoff against Brandon Hagel in defensive zone
P2 03:31
SHOT
Shot on goal by Zemgus Girgensons saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P2 03:21
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 03:15
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Peyton Krebs in defensive zone
P2 03:13
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jack Quinn saved by Jonas Johansson
P2 02:51
SHOT
Shot missed by Jack Quinn
P2 02:41
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 02:28
SHOT
Victor Hedman shot blocked by Josh Doan
P2 02:22
Brayden Point won faceoff against Josh Norris in offensive zone
P2 02:20
SHOT
Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P2 01:54
Sabres won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
P2 01:43
SHOT
Shot missed by Owen Power
P2 01:13
SHOT
Shot on goal by Owen Power saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 01:11
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P2 00:58
SHOT
Shot on goal by Bowen Byram saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 00:50
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P2 00:06
Noah Ostlund credited with hit on Gage Goncalves in defensive zone
P1 20:00
End of 1st Period.
P1 19:42
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ryan McLeod saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P1 19:24
Jason Zucker won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
P1 19:24
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 19:18
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Tyson Kozak in offensive zone
P1 19:10
Tyson Kozak won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
P1 18:08
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in defensive zone
P1 18:08
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 18:06
SHOT
Shot missed by Alex Tuch
P1 17:43
SHOT
Shot on goal by Peyton Krebs saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P1 17:12
SHOT
Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Tyson Kozak
P1 16:24
SHOT
Shot on goal by Josh Doan saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P1 15:45
Brayden Point won faceoff against Josh Norris in defensive zone
P1 15:42
SHOT
Jack Quinn shot blocked by J.J. Moser
P1 15:06
Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
P1 14:51
Tage Thompson won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
P1 14:35
SHOT
Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Noah Ostlund
P1 13:36
SHOT
Shot on goal by Josh Doan saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P1 12:51
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P1 12:44
SHOT
Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P1 12:38
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
P1 12:03
SHOT
Power play - Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Beck Malenstyn
P1 10:51
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P1 10:44
Power play - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in offensive zone
P1 10:44
Penalty to Zach Benson 2 minutes for Cross Checking
P1 10:40
SHOT
Shot on goal by Gage Goncalves saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P1 09:23
Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
P1 08:36
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P1 08:16
SHOT
Bowen Byram shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
P1 07:57
SHOT
Beck Malenstyn shot blocked by Brayden Point
P1 07:23
Tyson Kozak won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
P1 07:12
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P1 06:45
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in offensive zone
P1 06:45
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 06:15
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Tage Thompson in neutral zone
P1 06:13
SHOT
Shot on goal by Josh Norris saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P1 05:58
Sabres won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
P1 05:42
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P1 05:23
SHOT
Shot missed by Rasmus Dahlin
P1 05:02
SHOT
Shot missed by Rasmus Dahlin
P1 04:45
Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
P1 04:43
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mattias Samuelsson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P1 04:04
SHOT
Shot missed by Alex Tuch
P1 02:35
SHOT
Shot missed by Victor Hedman
P1 02:21
Takeaway by Oliver Bjorkstrand in offensive zone
P1 02:00
Tyson Kozak won faceoff against Dominic James in neutral zone
P1 01:57
Jack Quinn credited with hit on Brandon Hagel in neutral zone
P1 01:23
Giveaway by Tage Thompson in defensive zone
P1 00:54
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 00:51
SHOT
Shot on goal by Zemgus Girgensons saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P1 00:00
Game Setup.
Stats
Sabres
STATS
Lightning
35Shots on Goal38
48% Faceoff Win % 52%
5/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/0
12Penalty Infraction Mins28
16Hits28
14Shots Blocked5
16Giveaways11
SabresBUF
LightningTB
35Shots on Goal38
48% Faceoff Win % 52%
5/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/0
12Penalty Infraction Mins28
16Hits28
14Shots Blocked5
16Giveaways11

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Sabres vs. Lightning: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Sabres vs. Lightning
  • Date: Saturday, February 28, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Sabres +200, Lightning -235

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Sabres: 36%
  • Lightning: 64%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Sabres a win probability of 36%, while the Lightning have a win probability of 64%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Sabres in the NHL game at Benchmark International Arena on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Sabres vs. Lightning predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.

For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.

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