Sabres vs. Lightning Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Sabres vs. Lightning NHL game on February 28, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL sport icon
NHL
Sabres
6
2
Benchmark International Arena
Lightning
Benchmark International Arena
TEAM123T
Sabres
4 1 1 6
Lightning
0 1 1 2
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Sabres
    100%
  • Lightning
    0%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Sabres
4 1 1 6
Lightning
0 1 1 2
P3 18:24 Power play - Shot missed by Lightning
P3 18:01 Power play - Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P3 17:41 Power play - Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P3 15:15 Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P3 14:30 Power play - Shot missed by Noah Ostlund
P3 12:19 Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
P3 11:10 Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
P3 08:20 Shorthanded - Zemgus Girgensons shot blocked by Bowen Byram
P3 06:44 Power play - Shot missed by Josh Norris
P3 06:11 Bowen Byram shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
P3 06:04 Shot missed by Beck Malenstyn
P3 05:48 Zemgus Girgensons shot blocked by teammate
P3 05:25 Shot missed by Victor Hedman
P3 04:31 Shot missed by Erik Cernak
P3 02:01 Goal scored by Oliver Bjorkstrand assisted by Jake Guentzel and Nikita Kucherov
P3 01:25 Shot on goal by Emil Lilleberg saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P2 19:28 Dominic James shot blocked by Mattias Samuelsson
P2 18:26 Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P2 17:29 Shot missed by Owen Power
P2 17:28 Shot on goal by Owen Power saved by Jonas Johansson
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:08
    Shorthanded - Tyson Kozak won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  3. P3 19:08
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  4. P3 18:24
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Lightning
  5. P3 18:13
    Power play - Brayden Point won faceoff against Tyson Kozak in offensive zone
  6. P3 18:01
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  7. P3 17:41
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  8. P3 17:12
    Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  9. P3 17:12
    Penalty to Michael Kesselring 2 minutes for Misconduct
  10. P3 16:59
    Dominic James won faceoff against Josh Norris in offensive zone
  11. P3 15:51
    Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  12. P3 15:16
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Josh Norris in offensive zone
  13. P3 15:15
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  14. P3 15:02
    Tyson Kozak won faceoff against Dominic James in neutral zone
  15. P3 14:57
    Dominic James won faceoff against Tyson Kozak in neutral zone
  16. P3 14:30
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Noah Ostlund
  17. P3 13:35
    Power play - Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Pontus Holmberg in neutral zone
  18. P3 12:48
    Power play - Josh Norris won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  19. P3 12:48
    Penalty to Anthony Cirelli 2 minutes for Interference (Drawn by Rasmus Dahlin)
  20. P3 12:19
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
  21. P3 11:10
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
  22. P3 09:54
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  23. P3 08:20
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Zemgus Girgensons shot blocked by Bowen Byram
  24. P3 07:23
    Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli credited with hit on Josh Doan in offensive zone
  25. P3 06:44
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Josh Norris
  26. P3 06:23
    Power play - Josh Norris won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
  27. P3 06:23
    Penalty to Darren Raddysh 2 minutes for Cross Checking (Drawn by Beck Malenstyn)
  28. P3 06:11
    SHOT
    Bowen Byram shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
  29. P3 06:04
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Beck Malenstyn
  30. P3 05:51
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Tyson Kozak in offensive zone
  31. P3 05:48
    SHOT
    Zemgus Girgensons shot blocked by teammate
  32. P3 05:27
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in neutral zone
  33. P3 05:25
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Victor Hedman
  34. P3 04:31
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Erik Cernak
  35. P3 03:43
    Dominic James won faceoff against Tyson Kozak in neutral zone
  36. P3 03:04
    Shorthanded - Dominic James won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in defensive zone
  37. P3 02:24
    Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Tage Thompson in defensive zone
  38. P3 02:02
    Shorthanded - Brayden Point won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in defensive zone
  39. P3 02:02
    Penalty to Jake Guentzel 2 minutes for Misconduct
  40. P3 02:01
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Oliver Bjorkstrand assisted by Jake Guentzel and Nikita Kucherov
    5-2
  41. P3 01:28
    Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
  42. P3 01:28
    Penalty to Charle-Edouard D'Astous 2 minutes for Misconduct
  43. P3 01:28
    Penalty to Alex Tuch 2 minutes for Misconduct
  44. P3 01:25
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Emil Lilleberg saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  45. P3 00:50
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  46. P3 00:38
    Stoppage - Offside
  47. P3 00:00
    Josh Norris won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  48. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  49. P2 19:28
    SHOT
    Dominic James shot blocked by Mattias Samuelsson
  50. P2 19:27
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  51. P2 19:04
    Dominic James won faceoff against Tyson Kozak in offensive zone
  52. P2 18:26
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  53. P2 18:08
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Tage Thompson in neutral zone
  54. P2 18:08
    Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
  55. P2 17:29
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Owen Power
  56. P2 17:28
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Owen Power saved by Jonas Johansson
  57. P2 17:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  58. P2 16:20
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in offensive zone
  59. P2 16:20
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  60. P2 16:03
    Dominic James won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in neutral zone
  61. P2 15:38
    SHOT
    Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Mattias Samuelsson
  62. P2 15:35
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  63. P2 14:07
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Alex Tuch
  64. P2 13:25
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  65. P2 12:58
    Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in defensive zone
  66. P2 12:58
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  67. P2 12:31
    Shorthanded - Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Tage Thompson in defensive zone
  68. P2 12:31
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  69. P2 12:29
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Tage Thompson saved by Jonas Johansson
  70. P2 12:24
    Stoppage - Offside
  71. P2 12:10
    Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Josh Norris in defensive zone
  72. P2 11:12
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Rasmus Dahlin saved by Jonas Johansson
  73. P2 10:32
    Sabres won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  74. P2 10:26
    Stoppage - TV timeout
  75. P2 10:26
    Peyton Krebs won faceoff against Lightning in offensive zone
  76. P2 09:43
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  77. P2 08:09
    Mattias Samuelsson credited with hit on Oliver Bjorkstrand in defensive zone
  78. P2 07:40
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Zach Metsa saved by Jonas Johansson
  79. P2 07:35
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Zach Metsa saved by Jonas Johansson
  80. P2 06:06
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ryan McLeod saved by Jonas Johansson
  81. P2 05:47
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in neutral zone
  82. P2 05:47
    Penalty to Rasmus Dahlin 2 minutes for Misconduct
  83. P2 05:47
    Penalty to Brayden Point 2 minutes for Misconduct
  84. P2 05:14
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Gage Goncalves
  85. P2 03:51
    Oliver Bjorkstrand credited with hit on Zach Metsa in offensive zone
  86. P2 03:34
    Tyson Kozak won faceoff against Brandon Hagel in defensive zone
  87. P2 03:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Zemgus Girgensons saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  88. P2 03:21
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  89. P2 03:15
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Peyton Krebs in defensive zone
  90. P2 03:13
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jack Quinn saved by Jonas Johansson
  91. P2 02:51
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jack Quinn
  92. P2 02:41
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  93. P2 02:28
    SHOT
    Victor Hedman shot blocked by Josh Doan
  94. P2 02:22
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Josh Norris in offensive zone
  95. P2 02:20
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  96. P2 01:54
    Sabres won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  97. P2 01:43
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Owen Power
  98. P2 01:13
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Owen Power saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  99. P2 01:11
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  100. P2 00:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Bowen Byram saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  101. P2 00:50
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  102. P2 00:06
    Noah Ostlund credited with hit on Gage Goncalves in defensive zone
  103. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  104. P1 19:42
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ryan McLeod saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  105. P1 19:24
    Jason Zucker won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  106. P1 19:24
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  107. P1 19:18
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Tyson Kozak in offensive zone
  108. P1 19:10
    Tyson Kozak won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  109. P1 18:08
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in defensive zone
  110. P1 18:08
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  111. P1 18:06
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Alex Tuch
  112. P1 17:43
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Peyton Krebs saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  113. P1 17:12
    SHOT
    Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Tyson Kozak
  114. P1 16:24
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Josh Doan saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  115. P1 15:45
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Josh Norris in defensive zone
  116. P1 15:42
    SHOT
    Jack Quinn shot blocked by J.J. Moser
  117. P1 15:06
    Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  118. P1 14:51
    Tage Thompson won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  119. P1 14:35
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Noah Ostlund
  120. P1 13:36
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Josh Doan saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  121. P1 12:51
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  122. P1 12:44
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  123. P1 12:38
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  124. P1 12:03
    SHOT
    Power play - Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Beck Malenstyn
  125. P1 10:51
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  126. P1 10:44
    Power play - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in offensive zone
  127. P1 10:44
    Penalty to Zach Benson 2 minutes for Cross Checking
  128. P1 10:40
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Gage Goncalves saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  129. P1 09:23
    Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  130. P1 08:36
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  131. P1 08:16
    SHOT
    Bowen Byram shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
  132. P1 07:57
    SHOT
    Beck Malenstyn shot blocked by Brayden Point
  133. P1 07:23
    Tyson Kozak won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  134. P1 07:12
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  135. P1 06:45
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in offensive zone
  136. P1 06:45
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  137. P1 06:15
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Tage Thompson in neutral zone
  138. P1 06:13
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Josh Norris saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  139. P1 05:58
    Sabres won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  140. P1 05:42
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  141. P1 05:23
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Rasmus Dahlin
  142. P1 05:02
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Rasmus Dahlin
  143. P1 04:45
    Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  144. P1 04:43
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mattias Samuelsson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  145. P1 04:04
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Alex Tuch
  146. P1 02:35
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Victor Hedman
  147. P1 02:21
    Takeaway by Oliver Bjorkstrand in offensive zone
  148. P1 02:00
    Tyson Kozak won faceoff against Dominic James in neutral zone
  149. P1 01:57
    Jack Quinn credited with hit on Brandon Hagel in neutral zone
  150. P1 01:23
    Giveaway by Tage Thompson in defensive zone
  151. P1 00:54
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  152. P1 00:51
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Zemgus Girgensons saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  153. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Sabres
STATS
Lightning
35Shots on Goal38
48% Faceoff Win % 52%
5/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/0
12Penalty Infraction Mins28
16Hits28
14 Shots Blocked 5
16Giveaways11
SabresBUF
LightningTB
35Shots on Goal38
48% Faceoff Win % 52%
5/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/0
12Penalty Infraction Mins28
16Hits28
14 Shots Blocked 5
16Giveaways11

Sabres vs. Lightning: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Sabres vs. Lightning
  • Date: Saturday, February 28, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Sabres +200, Lightning -235

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Sabres: 36%
  • Lightning: 64%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Sabres a win probability of 36%, while the Lightning have a win probability of 64%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Sabres in the NHL game at Benchmark International Arena on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Sabres vs. Lightning predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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