Thunder vs. Mavericks Prediction, Picks & Odds
Spread
- Thunder
- Mavericks
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander | |||
| J. McCain | |||
| A. Mitchell | |||
| K. Williams | |||
| B. Stirtz |
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|
| C. Flagg | |||
| K. Irving | |||
| P. Washington | |||
| N. Marshall | |||
| Z. Risacher |
Thunder vs. Mavericks prediction & analysis
Game overview: NBA Wednesday
- Teams: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks
- Date: Wednesday, October 28, 2026
- Tip-off: 9:30PM ET
- Venue: American Airlines Center
Current betting odds
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5, -108), Mavericks (+5.5, +104)
- Moneyline: Thunder -203, Mavericks +199
- Total (Over/Under): 228.5 points (-113/+104)
Dimers’ win probabilities
- Thunder: 70.6%
- Mavericks: 29.4%
Our NBA win probabilities come from a machine learning model that assesses each team's offensive and defensive performance, along with factors such as recent form, player availability, home-court advantage, and matchup dynamics.
The model uses these projections to forecast probabilities for the moneyline, spread, total points, and the final score.
Projected Final Score
Our model projects the final score for this NBA matchup as Thunder 117 and Mavericks 111.
This is a margin of 6 points against a spread of 5.5, and a projected total of 228 points against a market line of 228.5.
A projected score is the middle of a range, not a forecast of the exact result. Use it to see how the game is likely to play out and how each side projects against the spread.
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Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Thunder a win probability of 70.6%, while the Mavericks have a win probability of 29.4%.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Thunder are more likely to beat the Mavericks in the NBA game at American Airlines Center on Wednesday.
That is the straight-up read. Whether either side is worth backing depends on the price, which is what our betting model rates.
Responsible gambling
Dimers’ predictions and betting insights are here to inform your decisions, not to make them for you. If you are betting on Thunder vs. Mavericks, set your limits in advance and stay within them. For support, visit our responsible gambling resources.
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