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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Game 5 of 2026 Finals
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Thunder vs. Lakers Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Thunder vs. Lakers NBA game on April 7, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NBA
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123
87
Apr 8, 2:30AM Crypto.com Arena
Apr 8, 2:30AM Crypto.com Arena
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Bets
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Thunder | 34 | 31 | 28 | 30 | 123 |
Lakers | 27 | 20 | 15 | 25 | 87 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
100%
0%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Thunder | 34 | 31 | 28 | 30 | 123 |
Lakers | 27 | 20 | 15 | 25 | 87 |
Q4 00:03 Lakers makes two point jump shot
Q4 00:14 Thunder misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:34 Lakers misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:53 Thunder makes two point jump shot
Q4 00:54 Thunder misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:06 Thunder misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:10 Thunder misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:23 Lakers makes three point jump shot
Q4 1:30 Thunder misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:37 Thunder misses two point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
End of 4th Quarter.
+2
Lakers makes two point jump shot
123-87
Kobe Bufkin defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Branden Carlson defensive rebound
Lakers misses three point jump shot
Brooks Barnhizer offensive rebound
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
123-85
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Lakers turnover
Dalton Knecht defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Thunder offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+3
Lakers makes three point jump shot
121-85
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Lakers defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Thunder offensive rebound
Lakers personal foul
Thunder personal foul
+1
Nick Smith Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 2
121-81
+1
Nick Smith Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 2
121-82
Lakers personal foul
Branden Carlson misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Thunder offensive rebound
+1
Branden Carlson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
121-80
Brooks Barnhizer defensive rebound
Lakers misses two point jump shot
Chris Manon defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder 60 second timeout
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
Lakers misses three point jump shot
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
120-80
Lakers personal foul
Branden Carlson defensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
+1
Kobe Bufkin makes regular free throw 1 of 2
117-80
Kobe Bufkin misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Lakers lineup change (Nick Smith Jr., Dalton Knecht, Kobe Bufkin, Chris Manon, Bronny James)
Kobe Bufkin defensive rebound
Brooks Barnhizer offensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+3
Lakers makes three point jump shot
117-79
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
117-76
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
Lakers misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
114-76
Kenrich Williams offensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Lakers makes two point jump shot
112-76
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
112-74
Lakers violation
+3
Lakers makes three point jump shot
110-74
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
110-71
Brooks Barnhizer defensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
Thunder personal foul
Lakers 60 second timeout
Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Nikola Topic, Branden Carlson, Brooks Barnhizer, Aaron Wiggins)
Lakers lineup change (Nick Smith Jr., Dalton Knecht, Kobe Bufkin, Chris Manon, Adou Thiero)
+1
Adou Thiero makes regular free throw 1 of 2
108-71
Adou Thiero misses regular free throw 2 of 2
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
108-70
+2
Lakers makes two point jump shot
105-70
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
105-68
+2
Lakers makes two point jump shot
103-68
Thunder turnover
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
Lakers misses two point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
Adou Thiero misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Lakers offensive rebound
Adou Thiero misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Chris Manon defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Adou Thiero defensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
+1
Adou Thiero makes regular free throw 1 of 2
103-65
+1
Adou Thiero makes regular free throw 2 of 2
103-66
Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Nikola Topic, Jared McCain, Branden Carlson, Aaron Wiggins)
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+2
Lakers makes two point jump shot
103-64
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
103-62
Jared McCain defensive rebound
Lakers misses two point jump shot
Drew Timme defensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Lakers turnover
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
101-62
Nikola Topic defensive rebound
Lakers misses two point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Nikola Topic, Jared McCain, Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams)
Lakers lineup change (Nick Smith Jr., Drew Timme, Dalton Knecht, Chris Manon, Adou Thiero)
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
98-62
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Lakers misses two point jump shot
Lakers defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Lakers misses three point jump shot
Thunder defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
96-62
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
Lakers misses three point jump shot
Dalton Knecht defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Lakers misses two point jump shot
Drew Timme defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Kobe Bufkin defensive rebound
End of 3rd Quarter.
Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Jared McCain, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams)
Lakers lineup change (Nick Smith Jr., Drew Timme, Dalton Knecht, Chris Manon, Bronny James)
Thunder delay of game violation
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Lakers misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
93-62
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Lakers makes two point jump shot
90-62
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder personal foul
Thunder lineup change (Jared McCain, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams)
Lakers lineup change (Drew Timme, Kobe Bufkin, Adou Thiero, Maxi Kleber, Bronny James)
Thunder turnover
+2
Lakers makes two point jump shot
90-60
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
90-58
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Lakers misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
88-58
Lakers turnover
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
86-58
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Lakers misses three point jump shot
Thunder turnover
+2
Lakers makes two point jump shot
84-58
Adou Thiero defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Isaiah Joe defensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
Rui Hachimura misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Lakers offensive rebound
Rui Hachimura misses regular free throw 2 of 2
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
84-56
+2
Lakers makes two point jump shot
81-56
Lakers 60 second timeout
Thunder lineup change (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe, Jaylin Williams)
Lakers lineup change (Kobe Bufkin, Adou Thiero, Maxi Kleber, Bronny James, Rui Hachimura)
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
81-54
Isaiah Joe defensive rebound
Lakers misses two point jump shot
Ajay Mitchell misses two point jump shot
Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
Lakers personal foul
Chet Holmgren misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Thunder offensive rebound
+1
Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 2 of 2
78-54
Thunder lineup change (Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe)
Thunder defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Lakers misses two point jump shot
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Jake LaRavia defensive rebound
Lakers personal foul
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes technical free throw 1 of 1
77-54
Lakers lineup change (Luke Kennard, Adou Thiero, Maxi Kleber, Bronny James, Rui Hachimura)
Lakers turnover
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
75-54
Lakers personal foul
Lakers lineup change (Luke Kennard, Adou Thiero, Maxi Kleber, Jake LaRavia, Rui Hachimura)
Thunder lineup change (Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Ajay Mitchell, Isaiah Joe)
+1
Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 1 of 1
76-54
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
Lakers misses two point jump shot
Rui Hachimura defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Lakers turnover
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
73-54
Cason Wallace offensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Lakers misses two point jump shot
Luke Kennard defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Cason Wallace offensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
Deandre Ayton misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Lakers offensive rebound
+1
Deandre Ayton makes regular free throw 2 of 2
70-54
Lakers lineup change (Luke Kennard, Deandre Ayton, Adou Thiero, Jake LaRavia, Rui Hachimura)
Thunder turnover
Lakers turnover
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
70-53
Lakers personal foul
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander offensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Lakers makes two point jump shot
68-53
Thunder 60 second timeout
Rui Hachimura offensive rebound
Lakers misses three point jump shot
Deandre Ayton defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Lakers turnover
Deandre Ayton defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Lakers turnover
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
68-51
Lakers violation
+2
Lakers makes two point jump shot
65-51
Jake LaRavia defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
+2
Lakers makes two point jump shot
65-49
Luke Kennard defensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
Rui Hachimura misses regular free throw 1 of 1
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
Deandre Ayton turnover (lost ball)
Lakers misses two point jump shot
Lakers misses three point jump shot
Lakers offensive rebound
End of 1st Half.
Thunder lineup change (Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell)
Lakers lineup change (Luke Kennard, Deandre Ayton, Drew Timme, Jake LaRavia, Rui Hachimura)
Rui Hachimura defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
Drew Timme misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Lakers offensive rebound
+1
Drew Timme makes regular free throw 2 of 2
65-47
Thunder lineup change (Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell, Isaiah Joe)
Drew Timme offensive rebound
Lakers misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
65-46
Lakers turnover
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
63-46
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Jake LaRavia offensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
Jake LaRavia misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Lakers offensive rebound
Jake LaRavia misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Lakers misses two point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Lakers lineup change (Deandre Ayton, Drew Timme, Jake LaRavia, Bronny James, Rui Hachimura)
Thunder personal foul
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
60-46
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Lakers misses two point jump shot
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
58-46
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Lakers misses two point jump shot
Lakers personal foul
+1
Cason Wallace makes regular free throw 1 of 2
54-46
+1
Cason Wallace makes regular free throw 2 of 2
55-46
Lakers personal foul
Drew Timme turnover (offensive foul)
Thunder lineup change (Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe)
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
53-46
+2
Lakers makes two point jump shot
51-46
Lakers personal foul
Lakers 60 second timeout
Instant replay
Chet Holmgren turnover (offensive foul)
Chet Holmgren offensive foul
Lakers challenge timeout
Lakers lineup change (Luke Kennard, Deandre Ayton, Drew Timme, Bronny James, Rui Hachimura)
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Lakers misses two point jump shot
Lakers personal foul
+1
Jared McCain makes regular free throw 1 of 2
50-44
+1
Jared McCain makes regular free throw 2 of 2
51-44
Lakers lineup change (Luke Kennard, Deandre Ayton, Drew Timme, Adou Thiero, Bronny James)
Jared McCain defensive rebound
Lakers misses three point jump shot
Ajay Mitchell offensive rebound
Thunder turnover
Thunder lineup change (Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jared McCain, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe)
Lakers lineup change (Luke Kennard, Deandre Ayton, Drew Timme, Jake LaRavia, Bronny James)
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Dalton Knecht offensive rebound
Lakers misses two point jump shot
Lakers misses three point jump shot
Jake LaRavia defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+2
Lakers makes two point jump shot
49-44
Lakers personal foul
+1
Ajay Mitchell makes regular free throw 1 of 2
48-42
+1
Ajay Mitchell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
49-42
Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
Lakers misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
47-42
Alex Caruso defensive rebound
Lakers misses two point jump shot
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
45-42
+2
Lakers makes two point jump shot
42-42
Thunder 60 second timeout
Lakers lineup change (Luke Kennard, Deandre Ayton, Drew Timme, Dalton Knecht, Jake LaRavia)
Thunder lineup change (Chet Holmgren, Jared McCain, Ajay Mitchell, Aaron Wiggins, Alex Caruso)
Thunder turnover
+2
Lakers makes two point jump shot
42-40
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
42-38
Thunder personal foul
Luke Kennard misses regular free throw 1 of 3
Lakers offensive rebound
+1
Luke Kennard makes regular free throw 2 of 3
39-37
+1
Luke Kennard makes regular free throw 3 of 3
39-38
Lakers lineup change (Luke Kennard, Deandre Ayton, Dalton Knecht, Jake LaRavia, Rui Hachimura)
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
39-36
Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
Lakers misses three point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Lakers lineup change (Luke Kennard, Dalton Knecht, Maxi Kleber, Jake LaRavia, Rui Hachimura)
Maxi Kleber defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+3
Lakers makes three point jump shot
36-36
Thunder turnover
Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound
Dalton Knecht misses two point driving layup
Dalton Knecht turnover (bad pass)
Dalton Knecht defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+2
Lakers makes two point jump shot
36-33
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
36-31
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Kobe Bufkin defensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
+1
Kobe Bufkin makes regular free throw 1 of 2
34-30
+1
Kobe Bufkin makes regular free throw 2 of 2
34-31
Lakers lineup change (Luke Kennard, Dalton Knecht, Kobe Bufkin, Maxi Kleber, Rui Hachimura)
Rui Hachimura defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound
Lakers misses three point jump shot
Bronny James defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Lakers makes two point jump shot
34-29
Thunder turnover
Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound
Lakers misses two point jump shot
Lakers offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Lakers 60 second timeout
Lakers lineup change (Dalton Knecht, Kobe Bufkin, Maxi Kleber, Bronny James, Rui Hachimura)
Lakers misses two point jump shot
End of 1st Quarter.
Instant replay (Challenge: Stands)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shooting foul (Jarred Vanderbilt draws the foul)
Thunder 60 second timeout
Lakers offensive rebound
Lakers offensive rebound
Thunder lineup change (Isaiah Hartenstein, Jared McCain, Ajay Mitchell, Aaron Wiggins, Alex Caruso)
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
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Thunder vs. Lakers: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Thunder vs. Lakers
- Date: Tuesday, April 7, 2026
- Time: 10:30 PM ET
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Thunder favored at -17.5
- Total (Over/Under): 221.5
- Moneyline Odds: Thunder -1718, Lakers +1718
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Thunder: 90%
- Lakers: 10%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Thunder 118-103 Lakers.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Thunder a win probability of 90%, while the Lakers have a win probability of 10%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Thunder are more likely to beat the Lakers in the NBA game at Crypto.com Arena on Wednesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Thunder vs. Lakers predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
