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Hawks vs. Bucks Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Hawks vs. Bucks NBA game on March 4, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
131
113
Mar 5, 2:30AM Fiserv Forum
Mar 5, 2:30AM Fiserv Forum
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hawks | 25 | 41 | 32 | 31 | 131 |
Bucks | 38 | 33 | 18 | 20 | 113 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
>99%
<1%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hawks | 25 | 41 | 32 | 31 | 131 |
Bucks | 38 | 33 | 18 | 20 | 113 |
Q4 00:21 Gary Trent Jr. misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:29 Bucks misses two point jump shot
Q4 00:44 Hawks misses two point jump shot
Q4 00:50 Bucks misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:40 Bucks makes two point jump shot
Q4 2:00 Bucks makes two point jump shot
Q4 2:11 Hawks makes two point jump shot
Q4 2:27 Hawks makes three point jump shot (Jalen Johnson assists)
Q4 2:40 Bucks makes two point jump shot
Q4 2:48 Hawks makes two point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
End of 4th Quarter.
Zaccharie Risacher defensive rebound
Gary Trent Jr. misses three point jump shot
Andre Jackson Jr. offensive rebound
Bucks misses two point jump shot
Hawks misses two point jump shot
Bucks defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Christian Koloko defensive rebound
Bucks misses three point jump shot
Hawks turnover
Bucks turnover (Zaccharie Risacher steals)
Hawks turnover (Thanasis Antetokounmpo steals)
+1
Cam Thomas makes regular free throw 2 of 2
125-105
Hawks personal foul
+1
Cam Thomas makes regular free throw 1 of 2
128-106
Hawks lineup change (Mouhamed Gueye, Christian Koloko, Caleb Houstan, CJ McCollum, Zaccharie Risacher)
Jalen Johnson misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Bucks personal foul
+1
Jalen Johnson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
125-105
Bucks lineup change (Andre Jackson Jr., Cam Thomas, Gary Trent Jr., Pete Nance, Thanasis Antetokounmpo)
Hawks lineup change (Christian Koloko, Caleb Houstan, Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson, Keaton Wallace)
Hawks offensive rebound
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
129-109
Hawks turnover
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
129-109
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
129-109
Bucks turnover
Bucks 60 second timeout
+3
Hawks makes three point jump shot (Jalen Johnson assists)
125-105
Bucks lineup change (Kyle Kuzma, Cam Thomas, Ryan Rollins, Ousmane Dieng, Bobby Portis)
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
128-106
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
125-105
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
Bucks misses three point jump shot
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
115-99
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
115-99
Giannis Antetokounmpo offensive rebound
Bucks misses two point jump shot
Ryan Rollins offensive rebound
Bucks misses three point jump shot
Dyson Daniels offensive rebound
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
115-99
Bucks 60 second timeout
Bucks personal foul
Jalen Johnson misses technical free throw 1 of 1
Bucks defensive rebound
Bucks lineup change (Kyle Kuzma, Ryan Rollins, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ousmane Dieng, Bobby Portis)
Hawks misses three point jump shot
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
Bucks misses three point jump shot
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
114-98
Bucks personal foul
Bucks lineup change (Kyle Kuzma, Ryan Rollins, Myles Turner, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ousmane Dieng)
Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
Bucks misses three point jump shot
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
115-99
+1
Ryan Rollins makes regular free throw 2 of 2
114-98
Nickeil Alexander-Walker shooting foul (Ryan Rollins draws the foul)
+1
Ryan Rollins makes regular free throw 1 of 2
114-98
Bucks personal foul (Jalen Johnson draws the foul)
+1
Jalen Johnson makes regular free throw 2 of 3
114-98
+1
Jalen Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 3
114-98
Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Onyeka Okongwu, CJ McCollum, Jalen Johnson)
+1
Jalen Johnson makes regular free throw 3 of 3
115-99
Hawks personal foul
Hawks turnover
Ryan Rollins misses regular free throw 1 of 2
+1
Ryan Rollins makes regular free throw 2 of 2
115-99
Bucks offensive rebound
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
114-98
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)
112-98
Bucks 60 second timeout
Bucks turnover
Jump ball. (Ousmane Dieng gains possession)
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
110-98
Bucks misses two point jump shot
Hawks defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Bucks lineup change (Ryan Rollins, Myles Turner, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ousmane Dieng, AJ Green)
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
108-97
Giannis Antetokounmpo misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Hawks personal foul
Bucks offensive rebound
+1
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
106-97
Bucks lineup change (Ryan Rollins, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ousmane Dieng, AJ Green, Jericho Sims)
Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Onyeka Okongwu, Corey Kispert, Jalen Johnson)
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot (Corey Kispert assists)
106-97
Corey Kispert defensive rebound
Bucks misses two point jump shot
Hawks personal foul
Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
Hawks misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Hawks defensive rebound
Bucks misses two point jump shot
Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
Hawks misses three point jump shot
Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
Bucks misses three point jump shot
Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
Hawks misses three point jump shot
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
104-97
Hawks 60 second timeout
Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jock Landale, Corey Kispert, Jalen Johnson)
Bucks lineup change (Cam Thomas, Ryan Rollins, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jericho Sims, Bobby Portis)
Cam Thomas defensive rebound
Hawks misses two point jump shot
Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
Bucks misses three point jump shot
Kyle Kuzma defensive rebound
Hawks misses three point jump shot
+2
Cam Thomas makes two point jump shot
104-95
+3
CJ McCollum makes three point jump shot
104-95
Hawks personal foul
+1
Cam Thomas makes regular free throw 1 of 2
101-92
+1
Cam Thomas makes regular free throw 2 of 2
101-93
Hawks personal foul
+3
Hawks makes three point jump shot
101-91
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
98-91
Bobby Portis defensive rebound
Hawks misses three point jump shot
Bucks personal foul
Instant replay
Bucks personal foul
Hawks misses two point jump shot
Hawks offensive rebound
End of 3rd Quarter.
Hawks lineup change (Mouhamed Gueye, Jock Landale, CJ McCollum, Corey Kispert, Zaccharie Risacher)
+3
Bucks makes three point jump shot
98-89
Jericho Sims offensive rebound
Bucks misses three point jump shot
+3
Hawks makes three point jump shot
98-86
Zaccharie Risacher defensive rebound
Hawks personal foul
+1
Kyle Kuzma makes regular free throw 1 of 2
94-86
Kyle Kuzma misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Hawks turnover
Jock Landale offensive rebound
Hawks misses two point jump shot
Mouhamed Gueye offensive rebound
Hawks misses three point jump shot
Bucks violation
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
94-85
+3
Hawks makes three point jump shot
95-83
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
92-83
+3
Hawks makes three point jump shot
92-81
Bucks personal foul
Cam Thomas turnover
Hawks offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Hawks lineup change (Mouhamed Gueye, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jock Landale, CJ McCollum, Zaccharie Risacher)
Hawks misses three point jump shot
Bobby Portis turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
+3
Bucks makes three point jump shot
89-81
Hawks misses three point jump shot
Bucks defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Hawks misses two point jump shot
Hawks offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Bucks lineup change (Kyle Kuzma, Cam Thomas, Pete Nance, Jericho Sims, Bobby Portis)
Hawks lineup change (Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jock Landale, Corey Kispert, Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson)
Bucks turnover
Jericho Sims defensive rebound
Hawks misses three point jump shot
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
89-78
+3
Hawks makes three point jump shot
89-76
Bucks personal foul
Jericho Sims turnover (offensive foul)
Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Jock Landale, Corey Kispert, Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson)
Jericho Sims defensive rebound
Hawks misses three point jump shot
Bucks turnover
+3
Hawks makes three point jump shot
86-76
Bucks 60 second timeout
Bucks lineup change (Kyle Kuzma, Ryan Rollins, AJ Green, Jericho Sims, Bobby Portis)
Zaccharie Risacher defensive rebound
Bucks misses three point jump shot
Jericho Sims offensive rebound
Bucks misses two point jump shot
Ousmane Dieng offensive rebound
Bucks misses three point jump shot
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
83-76
Bucks personal foul
Bucks lineup change (Ryan Rollins, Ousmane Dieng, AJ Green, Jericho Sims, Bobby Portis)
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
81-75
Hawks personal foul
Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu, Corey Kispert, Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson)
+1
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes regular free throw 1 of 1
81-76
Bobby Portis defensive rebound
Hawks misses three point jump shot
Bucks turnover
Bucks lineup change (Ryan Rollins, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ousmane Dieng, AJ Green, Bobby Portis)
Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
Hawks misses two point jump shot
Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
Bucks misses two point jump shot
Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
Hawks misses three point jump shot
Onyeka Okongwu offensive rebound
Onyeka Okongwu misses two point driving floating jump shot
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
Bucks misses three point jump shot
+3
Hawks makes three point jump shot
81-73
Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound
Bucks misses three point jump shot
Bucks personal foul
+1
CJ McCollum makes regular free throw 1 of 2
77-73
+1
CJ McCollum makes regular free throw 2 of 2
78-73
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
76-73
+3
Hawks makes three point jump shot
76-71
Bucks 60 second timeout
Bucks turnover
AJ Green offensive rebound
Bucks misses three point jump shot
Myles Turner offensive rebound
Hawks personal foul
Bucks offensive rebound
Giannis Antetokounmpo misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Giannis Antetokounmpo misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Bucks personal foul
+1
CJ McCollum makes regular free throw 1 of 2
72-71
+1
CJ McCollum makes regular free throw 2 of 2
73-71
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
Bucks misses two point jump shot
Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound
Hawks misses two point jump shot
Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
Bucks misses three point jump shot
Myles Turner defensive rebound
Hawks misses three point jump shot
Dyson Daniels offensive rebound
Hawks misses two point jump shot
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
Bucks misses three point jump shot
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
71-71
Onyeka Okongwu offensive rebound
Hawks misses two point jump shot
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
Bucks misses three point jump shot
Hawks personal foul
+3
Hawks makes three point jump shot
69-71
Bucks misses three point jump shot
Hawks defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Myles Turner defensive rebound
End of 1st Half.
Hawks misses three point jump shot
+3
Bucks makes three point jump shot
66-71
Hawks personal foul
Hawks turnover
+3
Bucks makes three point jump shot
66-68
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
65-65
Bucks personal foul
+1
Jalen Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 1
66-65
Bucks turnover
Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
Hawks misses two point jump shot
Hawks personal foul
+1
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
63-64
+1
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
63-65
Bucks misses two point jump shot
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Onyeka Okongwu, CJ McCollum, Jalen Johnson)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Dyson Daniels offensive rebound
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
63-63
Hawks misses two point jump shot
Bucks turnover
Ousmane Dieng offensive rebound
Bucks misses two point jump shot
Ousmane Dieng offensive rebound
Bucks misses three point jump shot
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
61-63
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
59-63
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
59-61
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
57-61
+3
Hawks makes three point jump shot
57-59
+3
Bucks makes three point jump shot
54-59
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
54-56
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
Bucks misses three point jump shot
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
52-56
Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
Bucks misses three point jump shot
Hawks personal foul
Bucks lineup change (Ryan Rollins, Myles Turner, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ousmane Dieng, AJ Green)
Jericho Sims offensive rebound
Bucks misses three point jump shot
Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
Hawks misses three point jump shot
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
50-56
+3
Hawks makes three point jump shot
50-54
+3
Bucks makes three point jump shot
47-54
Hawks 60 second timeout
Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Onyeka Okongwu, Corey Kispert, Jalen Johnson)
Bucks lineup change (Ryan Rollins, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ousmane Dieng, Jericho Sims, Bobby Portis)
Hawks turnover
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
47-51
+3
Hawks makes three point jump shot
47-49
Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
Bucks misses two point jump shot
+3
Hawks makes three point jump shot
44-49
Hawks misses three point jump shot
Jock Landale offensive rebound
Bucks personal foul
+2
Jericho Sims makes two point tip layup
41-49
Bucks lineup change (Kyle Kuzma, Ryan Rollins, Pete Nance, Jericho Sims, Bobby Portis)
Hawks lineup change (Mouhamed Gueye, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jock Landale, CJ McCollum, Corey Kispert)
Bucks lineup change (Kyle Kuzma, Ryan Rollins, Pete Nance, Jericho Sims, Bobby Portis)
Jericho Sims offensive rebound
Bucks misses two point jump shot
Jericho Sims offensive rebound
Bucks misses two point jump shot
+3
Hawks makes three point jump shot
41-47
CJ McCollum defensive rebound
Bucks misses three point jump shot
Jericho Sims defensive rebound
Hawks misses three point jump shot
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
38-47
Bucks 60 second timeout
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 33 | C. Houstan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| C | 35 | C. Koloko | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| G | 2 | K. Wallace | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| F | 10 | Z. Risacher | 12 | 5 | 0 |
| F | 18 | M. Gueye | 8 | 5 | 0 |
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F | 43 | T. Antetokounmpo | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| G | 24 | C. Thomas | 11 | 2 | 3 |
| G | 5 | G. Trent Jr. | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| G | 44 | A. Jackson Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| F | 35 | P. Nance | 3 | 1 | 0 |
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Hawks vs. Bucks: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Hawks vs. Bucks
- Date: Wednesday, March 4, 2026
- Time: 9:30 PM ET
- Venue: Fiserv Forum
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Bucks favored at -1.5
- Total (Over/Under): 232.5
- Moneyline Odds: Hawks -104, Bucks -112
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Hawks: 41%
- Bucks: 59%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Hawks 114-117 Bucks.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Hawks a win probability of 41%, while the Bucks have a win probability of 59%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Bucks are more likely to beat the Hawks in the NBA game at Fiserv Forum on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Hawks vs. Bucks predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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