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Heat vs. Spurs Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Heat vs. Spurs NBA game on October 30, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
101
107
Oct 30, 8:30 PM ET Frost Bank Center
Oct 30, 8:30 PM ET Frost Bank Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Pro Bets
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heat | 31 | 27 | 14 | 29 | 101 |
Spurs | 33 | 26 | 28 | 20 | 107 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
- Heat
- Spurs
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heat | 31 | 27 | 14 | 29 | 101 |
Spurs | 33 | 26 | 28 | 20 | 107 |
Q4 00:11 Heat misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:19 Spurs misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:41 Heat makes three point jump shot
Q4 1:14 Heat misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:38 Heat misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:08 Heat makes three point jump shot
Q4 2:16 Spurs makes two point jump shot
Q4 2:24 Heat misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:39 Spurs makes three point jump shot
Q4 3:07 Spurs misses three point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 ALL
End of 4th Quarter.
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat personal foul
Instant replay
Victor Wembanyama misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Spurs offensive rebound
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 2 of 2
101-107
Heat 60 second timeout
Devin Vassell offensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
101-106
Spurs turnover
Heat lineup change (Andrew Wiggins, Simone Fontecchio, Dru Smith, Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell)
Spurs turnover
Heat turnover
Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Spurs personal foul
Harrison Barnes turnover (offensive foul)
Heat misses two point jump shot
Spurs defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Spurs turnover
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
98-106
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
95-106
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
95-104
Heat turnover
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Heat turnover
Heat personal foul
+1
Harrison Barnes makes regular free throw 1 of 2
95-100
Heat 60 second timeout
+1
Harrison Barnes makes regular free throw 2 of 2
95-101
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
95-99
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
93-99
Stephon Castle offensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Spurs personal foul
+1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 2
92-96
+1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 2
93-96
Heat 60 second timeout
Heat lineup change (Andrew Wiggins, Simone Fontecchio, Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
91-96
Devin Vassell defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
91-93
Julian Champagnie offensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Harrison Barnes defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Devin Vassell defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Spurs personal foul
Spurs lineup change (Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell, Stephon Castle, Harrison Barnes)
Spurs turnover
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
91-90
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
89-90
Heat misses two point jump shot
Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
89-88
Spurs 60 second timeout
Spurs lineup change (Julian Champagnie, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, Harrison Barnes)
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
87-88
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
85-88
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
83-88
Heat personal foul
Victor Wembanyama misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Spurs offensive rebound
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 2 of 2
80-88
Heat personal foul
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
80-87
Spurs 60 second timeout
Spurs lineup change (Keldon Johnson, Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell, Stephon Castle, Harrison Barnes)
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Spurs turnover
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
77-87
Spurs personal foul
Dylan Harper turnover
Instant replay
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 1
78-87
Spurs personal foul
Spurs personal foul
Spurs turnover
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
74-87
Spurs violation
Spurs lineup change (Keldon Johnson, Victor Wembanyama, Jordan McLaughlin, Dylan Harper, Harrison Barnes)
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Jordan McLaughlin defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Spurs misses three point jump shot
End of 3rd Quarter.
Heat lineup change (Andrew Wiggins, Simone Fontecchio, Dru Smith, Bam Adebayo, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
72-87
Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Heat turnover
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
72-84
Heat personal foul
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
72-81
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Heat personal foul
Dylan Harper misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Spurs offensive rebound
+1
Dylan Harper makes regular free throw 2 of 2
72-79
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Heat misses two point jump shot
Heat offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Spurs 60 second timeout
Heat lineup change (Simone Fontecchio, Kel'el Ware, Nikola Jovic, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Spurs lineup change (Julian Champagnie, Keldon Johnson, Victor Wembanyama, Jordan McLaughlin, Dylan Harper)
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
72-78
Simone Fontecchio offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
72-76
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
72-74
Simone Fontecchio offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Spurs personal foul
Spurs lineup change (Keldon Johnson, Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell, Jordan McLaughlin, Dylan Harper)
Heat lineup change (Simone Fontecchio, Kel'el Ware, Nikola Jovic, Davion Mitchell, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
69-74
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
69-72
Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
67-72
Spurs personal foul
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
66-69
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
67-69
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Heat defensive rebound
Spurs personal foul
Spurs lineup change (Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, Bismack Biyombo)
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Spurs turnover
Devin Vassell defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Heat personal foul
Spurs lineup change (Keldon Johnson, Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle)
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
65-69
Spurs turnover
Heat misses two point jump shot
Spurs defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
62-69
Heat 60 second timeout
Heat lineup change (Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell, Pelle Larsson, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
60-69
Spurs offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Devin Vassell defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
60-67
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Heat personal foul
Heat turnover
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Julian Champagnie offensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
60-65
Heat turnover
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
60-63
Harrison Barnes defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
60-61
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
60-59
Heat misses two point jump shot
Heat offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Spurs offensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Dylan Harper defensive rebound
End of 1st Half.
Heat lineup change (Andrew Wiggins, Kel'el Ware, Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell, Pelle Larsson)
Spurs lineup change (Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell, Stephon Castle, Harrison Barnes)
Heat personal foul
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 1 of 2
58-58
Heat lineup change (Andrew Wiggins, Simone Fontecchio, Dru Smith, Bam Adebayo, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Spurs lineup change (Julian Champagnie, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle)
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
58-59
Spurs defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat lineup change (Andrew Wiggins, Dru Smith, Bam Adebayo, Pelle Larsson, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
58-57
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
58-55
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
56-55
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Spurs personal foul
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
56-53
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat personal foul
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 2
56-50
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 2 of 2
56-51
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
56-49
Spurs personal foul
Heat 60 second timeout
Heat lineup change (Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell, Pelle Larsson, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Spurs lineup change (Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle)
Stoppage (Blood rule)
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
54-49
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
52-49
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
52-46
Spurs personal foul
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Heat personal foul
Heat lineup change (Andrew Wiggins, Kel'el Ware, Davion Mitchell, Pelle Larsson, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
50-46
Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
48-46
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat misses two point jump shot
Heat personal foul
Stephon Castle misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Spurs offensive rebound
Spurs lineup change (Keldon Johnson, Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell, Stephon Castle, Harrison Barnes)
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
48-44
Heat turnover
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
48-43
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Heat defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
45-43
Spurs defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat personal foul
Stephon Castle misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Spurs offensive rebound
Heat lineup change (Andrew Wiggins, Simone Fontecchio, Kel'el Ware, Davion Mitchell, Pelle Larsson)
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
45-41
Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
45-40
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
42-40
Devin Vassell defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Spurs personal foul
Bam Adebayo misses technical free throw 1 of 1
Heat offensive rebound
Heat lineup change (Simone Fontecchio, Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell, Pelle Larsson, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Spurs lineup change (Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, Bismack Biyombo, Harrison Barnes)
Dru Smith defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Spurs 60 second timeout
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, Harrison Barnes)
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
42-38
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Dylan Harper defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
39-38
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
36-38
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
36-36
Heat misses two point jump shot
Heat offensive rebound
Spurs personal foul
Heat lineup change (Simone Fontecchio, Dru Smith, Bam Adebayo, Pelle Larsson, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Spurs lineup change (Julian Champagnie, Keldon Johnson, Victor Wembanyama, Dylan Harper, Harrison Barnes)
Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
33-36
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
31-36
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Spurs misses three point jump shot
End of 1st Quarter.
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
31-33
Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
29-33
Heat turnover
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Heat personal foul
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 2
29-29
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 2 of 2
29-30
Nikola Jovic turnover (offensive foul)
Heat personal foul
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
29-28
Heat turnover
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
29-26
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
29-23
Dru Smith defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Spurs personal foul
+1
Simone Fontecchio makes regular free throw 1 of 3
25-23
+1
Simone Fontecchio makes regular free throw 2 of 3
26-23
+1
Simone Fontecchio makes regular free throw 3 of 3
27-23
Spurs lineup change (Julian Champagnie, Keldon Johnson, Victor Wembanyama, Jordan McLaughlin, Dylan Harper)
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
24-23
Spurs turnover
Spurs lineup change (Keldon Johnson, Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell, Jordan McLaughlin, Dylan Harper)
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
22-23
Heat personal foul
+1
Keldon Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
20-22
+1
Keldon Johnson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
20-23
Heat lineup change (Simone Fontecchio, Nikola Jovic, Dru Smith, Bam Adebayo, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Bismack Biyombo offensive rebound
Heat personal foul
+1
Devin Vassell makes regular free throw 1 of 2
20-21
Devin Vassell misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Devin Vassell defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Keldon Johnson offensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Keldon Johnson offensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Heat lineup change (Simone Fontecchio, Kel'el Ware, Nikola Jovic, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Heat personal foul
Heat lineup change (Simone Fontecchio, Kel'el Ware, Nikola Jovic, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Instant replay
Heat lineup change (Andrew Wiggins, Kel'el Ware, Dru Smith, Pelle Larsson, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Heat lineup change (Simone Fontecchio, Kel'el Ware, Nikola Jovic, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Heat turnover
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
20-20
Heat turnover
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Heat turnover
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
20-17
Spurs personal foul
Heat lineup change (Andrew Wiggins, Kel'el Ware, Dru Smith, Pelle Larsson, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Spurs lineup change (Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, Bismack Biyombo)
Heat personal foul
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
18-16
Heat personal foul
Heat 60 second timeout
Heat challenge timeout
Instant replay
Heat lineup change (Andrew Wiggins, Kel'el Ware, Davion Mitchell, Pelle Larsson, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Spurs lineup change (Keldon Johnson, Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell, Stephon Castle, Harrison Barnes)
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 1 of 1
18-17
Heat 60 second timeout
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
18-14
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
15-14
Heat personal foul
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
15-11
Spurs personal foul
Victor Wembanyama turnover (offensive foul)
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Spurs 60 second timeout
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
13-11
Davion Mitchell defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
Spurs personal foul
Andrew Wiggins misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Heat offensive rebound
Andrew Wiggins misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
10-11
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
7-11
Devin Vassell defensive rebound
Bam Adebayo misses three point jump shot
Stephon Castle turnover (Kel'el Ware steals)
+2
Andrew Wiggins makes two point layup
7-9
+2
Stephon Castle makes two point driving finger roll layup
5-9
+3
Bam Adebayo makes three point jump shot (Andrew Wiggins assists)
5-7
Spurs offensive rebound
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
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Heat vs. Spurs: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Heat vs. Spurs
- Date: Thursday, October 30, 2025
- Time: 8:30 PM ET
- Venue: Frost Bank Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Spurs favored at -7.5
- Total (Over/Under): 234.5
- Moneyline Odds: Heat +198, Spurs -215
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Heat: 31%
- Spurs: 69%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Heat 111-117 Spurs.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Heat a win probability of 31%, while the Spurs have a win probability of 69%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Spurs are more likely to beat the Heat in the NBA game at Frost Bank Center on Friday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Heat vs. Spurs predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
