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Read Article United States vs. Paraguay prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Group Stage]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get United States vs Paraguay predictions for World Cup 2026 Friday.
United States will square off with Paraguay in Group D of the World Cup 2026 at SoFi Stadium on Friday, beginning at 9:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven World Cup 2026 model predicts United States as the most likely winner of the United States vs. Paraguay game.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's match, including best bets and picks.
United States vs. Paraguay prediction: Who will win?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's World Cup 2026 game between United States and Paraguay, forming part of our World Cup 2026 predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model suggests a 49.1% chance of United States winning, a 24.4% chance for Paraguay, and a 26.5% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 56.9% chance of staying under, with a 53.1% chance of at least one team keeping a clean sheet. In the win to nil market, United States holds a 29.9% probability to win without conceding, with Paraguay given a 14.2% chance.
For bettors looking to cover multiple possibilities, the most likely double chance result is United States to win or draw at 75.6%.
Paraguay vs. United States odds
We have sourced the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| United States | Paraguay | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +105 | +310 | +225 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| +150 | -165 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
United States vs. Paraguay picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Moneyline: United States @ +105 via BetMGM
- Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ +150 via BetMGM
- Win to Nil: Paraguay @ +450 via BetMGM
- Double Chance: United States or Paraguay @ -290 via FanDuel
- Both Teams To Score: Yes @ +110 via BetMGM
According to our World Cup 2026 best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 2.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
United States vs. Paraguay: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-0 United States win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| United States 1-0 Paraguay | 13.2% |
| United States 1-1 Paraguay | 12.5% |
| United States 2-0 Paraguay | 9.6% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 46.9% chance of both sides finding the net and a 53.1% chance that at least one doesn’t.
United States vs. Paraguay player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions
Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Friday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in United States-Paraguay:
United States
- Folarin Balogun: 24.3% probability
- Christian Pulisic: 21.8% probability
- Malik Tillman: 16.1% probability
- Weston McKennie: 10.4% probability
- Sergino Dest: 8.5% probability
Paraguay
- Antonio Sanabria: 15.6% probability
- Julio Enciso: 13.6% probability
- Miguel Almiron: 10.9% probability
- Diego Gomez: 9.4% probability
- Damian Bobadilla: 5.9% probability
United States vs. Paraguay game-day updates and essential details
Friday's soccer World Cup action between United States and Paraguay at SoFi Stadium is scheduled to start at 9:00 PM ET.
- Who: United States vs. Paraguay
- Date: Friday, June 12, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
- Venue: SoFi Stadium
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
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Conclusion
According to our computer model, United States has a 49.1% win probability on Friday, Paraguay has a 24.4% win probability, and there is a 26.5% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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