WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, August 16, 2026

Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, August 16, 2026—are live with the Storm's Dominique Malonga projected as the most likely player to score first.

These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.

Malonga, Kelsey Mitchell and Kamilla Cardoso lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities powered by our upgraded WNBA player props model.

WNBA first basket predictions tonight (August 16, 2026)

• Dominique Malonga (Storm): 16.8% probability
• Kelsey Mitchell (Fever): 16.1% probability
• Kamilla Cardoso (Sky): 15.0% probability
• Kahleah Copper (Mercury): 14.2% probability
• Allisha Gray (Dream): 13.8% probability
• Megan Gustafson (Fire): 13.0% probability
• Aliyah Boston (Fever): 12.7% probability
• Bridget Carleton (Fire): 11.8% probability
• Caitlin Clark (Fever): 11.7% probability
• Angel Reese (Dream): 11.3% probability
• Carla Leite (Fire): 11.2% probability
• Flau'jae Johnson (Storm): 10.9% probability
• Alyssa Thomas (Mercury): 10.8% probability
• Azura Stevens (Sky): 10.5% probability
• Rhyne Howard (Dream): 9.7% probability
• DeWanna Bonner (Mercury): 9.3% probability
• Courtney Vandersloot (Sky): 8.9% probability
• Noemie Brochant (Mercury): 8.7% probability
• Naz Hillmon (Dream): 8.7% probability
• Natasha Cloud (Sky): 8.4% probability
• Emily Engstler (Fire): 8.2% probability
• Jade Melbourne (Storm): 8.0% probability
• Jordan Horston (Storm): 7.3% probability
• Jacy Sheldon (Sky): 7.2% probability
• Ezi Magbegor (Storm): 7.1% probability
• Sami Whitcomb (Mercury): 7.0% probability
• Jordin Canada (Dream): 6.5% probability
• Nyadiew Puoch (Fire): 5.9% probability
• Makayla Timpson (Fever): 5.7% probability
• Lexie Hull (Fever): 3.9% probability

WNBA first basket picks today (August 16, 2026)

• Kelsey Mitchell (Fever): 2.7% edge at +650
• Bridget Carleton (Fire): 1.8% edge at +900
• Noemie Brochant (Mercury): 1.6% edge at +1300
• Naz Hillmon (Dream): 1.5% edge at +1300
• Natasha Cloud (Sky): 1.2% edge at +1300
• Jacy Sheldon (Sky): 1.0% edge at +1520
• Emily Engstler (Fire): 0.7% edge at +1240
• Courtney Vandersloot (Sky): 0.6% edge at +1100
• Allisha Gray (Dream): 0.5% edge at +650
• Jordan Horston (Storm): 0.1% edge at +1300
• Nyadiew Puoch (Fire): 0.0% edge at +1600

Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.

For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of WNBA prop bets for 8/16.

Conclusion: Betting on today's WNBA first basket

For Sunday, August 16, 2026, Dominique Malonga, Kelsey Mitchell and Kamilla Cardoso lead our first basket projections, with Mitchell shaping as the strongest value play at +650. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.

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