Mystics vs. Mercury prediction: Why Washington is favored to win Tuesday's WNBA matchup [8/25/2026]

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's WNBA game between the Mystics and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Mystics a 59.5% chance of beating the Mercury.

According to our model, the Mystics (-1.5) have a 54.6% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 168.5 points has a 56.0% chance of going over.

Mystics vs. Mercury odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Mystics -1.5 (+100) / Mercury +1.5 (+102)
• Moneyline: Mystics -117, Mercury +115

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Mystics vs. Mercury picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Mystics -1.5 @ +100 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Mystics @ -117 via Novig
• Total: Over 168.5 @ +104 via Novig

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 168.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Mystics vs. Mercury player props

WNBA player props are a great way to wager on Tuesday's Washington vs. Phoenix game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Shakira Austin is expected to lead the Mystics with 16 points, 9 rebounds and 2 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 20 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists for the Mercury.

Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Shakira Austin striking first with a 16.2% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Mystics prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Mystics are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Shakira Austin	16	9	2	1	37
Kiki Iriafen	15	9	2	0	32
Sonia Citron	14	3	7	1	34
M. Onyenwere	9	3	3	2	19
Lauren Betts	7	5	2	0	18

Mercury prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	20	4	2	2	31
Alyssa Thomas	13	7	8	0	40
Kelsey Plum	12	2	4	1	23
Noemie Brochant	10	3	2	2	21
Sami Whitcomb	7	3	3	2	19

Mystics vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details

Tuesday's game between the Mercury and Mystics at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Date: Tuesday, August 25, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center

Conclusion

We predict the Mystics, with a 59.5% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Tuesday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.