Liberty vs. Sun prediction: Why New York is favored to win Saturday's WNBA matchup [8/15/2026]

The Connecticut Sun will take on the favored New York Liberty in WNBA action at Mohegan Sun Arena on Saturday, starting at 1:00 PM ET.

Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Liberty as the most likely winner in this Liberty vs. Sun prediction.

The Sun, with star players like Brittney Griner, Leila Lacan and Olivia Nelson-Ododa, are set to take on the Liberty, featuring Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Pauline Astier.

This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Liberty vs. Sun prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's WNBA matchup between the Liberty and Sun, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Liberty a 77.2% chance of beating the Sun.

According to our model, the Sun (+8.5) have a 51.9% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 171.5 points has a 50.9% chance of going over,.

Liberty vs. Sun odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Liberty -8.5 (+104) / Sun +8.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Liberty -320, Sun +355

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Liberty vs. Sun picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Sun +8.5 @ -108 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Liberty @ -320 via FanDuel
• Total: Over 171.5 @ -104 via Polymarket

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Liberty to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Liberty vs. Sun player props

Betting on Liberty vs. Sun WNBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mohegan Sun Arena.

Breanna Stewart is expected to lead the Liberty with 18 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists, while Brittney Griner is projected to have 12 points, 6 rebounds and 3 assists for the Sun.

For early game action, the data identifies Brittney Griner as the most probable player to secure the first basket.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Liberty prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Breanna Stewart	18	7	5	1	40
Jonquel Jones	13	9	3	2	35
Pauline Astier	10	3	4	1	22
Rebecca Allen	9	3	1	2	19
Marine Johannes	9	2	2	4	21

Sun prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sun:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Brittney Griner	12	6	3	0	29
Leila Lacan	11	3	4	1	27
O. Nelson-Ododa	9	6	2	0	23
Diamond Miller	9	3	2	2	19
Kennedy Burke	8	3	1	2	20

Liberty vs. Sun game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's game between the Sun and Liberty at Mohegan Sun Arena is scheduled to begin at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun
• Date: Saturday, August 15, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Liberty, with a 77.2% win probability, will likely beat the Sun in Saturday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.