Liberty vs. Sun prediction: Why New York is favored to win Saturday's WNBA matchup [8/15/2026]
Get New York Liberty vs Connecticut Sun predictions for WNBA Saturday.
The Connecticut Sun will take on the favored New York Liberty in WNBA action at Mohegan Sun Arena on Saturday, beginning at 1:00 PM ET.
Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Liberty as the most likely winner in this Liberty vs. Sun prediction.
The Sun, powered by Aaliyah Edwards, Brittney Griner and Leila Lacan, will face off against the Liberty, featuring Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Liberty vs. Sun prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model gives the Liberty a 78.1% chance of beating the Sun.
According to our model, the Sun (+8.5) have a 50.9% chance of covering the spread, while the 172.5-point over/under has a 54.2% chance of going over,.
Liberty vs. Sun odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Spread: Liberty -8.5 (-104) / Sun +8.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: Liberty -345, Sun +355
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Liberty vs. Sun picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Spread: Sun +8.5 @ +100 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Liberty @ -345 via BetRivers
- Total: Over 172.5 @ +108 via Polymarket
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 172.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Liberty vs. Sun player props
Betting on New York vs. Connecticut WNBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mohegan Sun Arena.
Breanna Stewart is expected to lead the Liberty with 18 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists, while Aaliyah Edwards is projected to have 13 points, 5 rebounds and 1 assists for the Sun.
Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Brittney Griner striking first with a 15% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Liberty prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | 18 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 40 |
| Sabrina Ionescu | 14 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 30 |
| Jonquel Jones | 13 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 35 |
| Rebecca Allen | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 20 |
| Pauline Astier | 8 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
Sun prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sun:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaliyah Edwards | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 24 |
| Brittney Griner | 11 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 27 |
| Leila Lacan | 11 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 27 |
| Diamond Miller | 8 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 |
| O. Nelson-Ododa | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21 |
Liberty vs. Sun game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's action between the Sun and Liberty at Mohegan Sun Arena is scheduled to commence at 1:00 PM ET.
- Who: New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun
- Date: Saturday, August 15, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Liberty, with a 78.1% win probability, will likely beat the Sun in Saturday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
