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Read Article Sun vs. Sparks prediction: Los Angeles favored to win Saturday's WNBA matchup [8/22/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Connecticut Sun vs Los Angeles Sparks predictions for WNBA Saturday.
The Los Angeles Sparks will square off with the Connecticut Sun in WNBA action at Crypto.com Arena on Saturday, commencing at 9:00 PM ET.
Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Sparks as the most likely winner in this Sun vs. Sparks prediction.
The Sparks, who have the likes of Nneka Ogwumike, Dearica Hamby and Rae Burrell, will face off against the Sun, whose lineup includes Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Kennedy Burke and Leila Lacan.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Sun vs. Sparks prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's WNBA game between the Sun and Sparks, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Sparks a 69.6% chance of beating the Sun.
According to our model, the Sparks (-5.5) have a 50.9% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 169.5 points has a 53.3% chance of going over.
Sun vs. Sparks odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Spread: Sun +5.5 (-108) / Sparks -5.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: Sun +182, Sparks -186
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Sun vs. Sparks picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Spread: Sparks -5.5 @ +100 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Sparks @ -186 via Polymarket
- Total: Over 169.5 @ -108 via BetRivers
According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Sparks to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Sun vs. Sparks player props
WNBA prop bets are an exciting way to wager on Saturday's Sun vs. Sparks matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Crypto.com Arena.
Olivia Nelson-Ododa is expected to lead the Sun with 11 points, 7 rebounds and 2 assists, while Nneka Ogwumike is projected to have 16 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists for the Sparks.
For early game action, the data identifies Olivia Nelson-Ododa as the most probable player to secure the first basket.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Sun prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Sun are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O. Nelson-Ododa | 11 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 28 |
| Kennedy Burke | 11 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| Leila Lacan | 10 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 26 |
| Diamond Miller | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 18 |
| Saniya Rivers | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
Sparks prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sparks:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nneka Ogwumike | 16 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 37 |
| Dearica Hamby | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 33 |
| Rae Burrell | 14 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 29 |
| Cameron Brink | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 26 |
| Ariel Atkins | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
Sun vs. Sparks game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's matchup between the Sparks and Sun at Crypto.com Arena is scheduled to commence at 9:00 PM ET.
- Who: Connecticut Sun vs. Los Angeles Sparks
- Date: Saturday, August 22, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Sparks, with a 69.6% win probability, will likely beat the Sun in Saturday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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