US Open tennis odds: 5 dark horse picks with strong betting value

The US Open tennis gets underway Sunday at Flushing Meadows, and this year the most interesting story for bettors isn't who wins the final Grand Slam of 2026—it's how badly the sportsbooks have mispriced the field. Jannik Sinner's absence through injury has blown the draw wide open, but the market hasn't fully caught up. Using the Dimers tennis predictions model's title probabilities as a fair-value baseline against current sportsbook odds, here's where the real edges are hiding—and where the public is simply overpaying for star power.

Men's draw: Fade the favorites, find the real value

With Sinner out, Carlos Alcaraz inherits the top line, and the market has piled on accordingly: +240, which implies a 29.4% chance of winning the title. The Dimers men's tennis futures model isn't nearly that convinced, pegging him at 23.0%, which works out to fair odds of roughly +335. Bet $100 on Alcaraz today and you'd collect $240 in profit if he wins; at the model's fair price, that same $100 would pay out $335—a $95 haircut on every $100 wagered. Alcaraz may well win the year's final Grand Slam, but he's priced too aggressively to be a betting recommendation at +240.

Alexander Zverev is even worse business. His +280 implies a 26.3% title chance against a Dimers figure of just 17.4%—the largest favorite-vs-model gap on the entire board (fair odds: +475).

The top two market favorites, and neither is considered a tennis best bet.

Three dark horse bets with real edges

This is where the value actually lives—three underdog bets the market is overlooking relative to the model, each for a different reason.

Daniil Medvedev (+5000) is the standout. The model gives him more than double the chance the market does, and it's not hard to see why if you were watching in March. At Indian Wells, Medvedev throttled world No. 1 Alcaraz in the semifinal, 6-3, 7-6(3), a straight sets win—before running into a red-hot Sinner in the final and going down narrowly in a pair of tiebreaks. While he's not exactly a model of consistency, Medvedev is a player who has shown he can more than match it with the two best players in the world on a fast hard court this year. At +5000 against a model-implied fair price near +2280, this is the single biggest overlay of the entire tournament.

Felix Auger-Aliassime (+3000) offers a smaller but still meaningful edge—Dimers' 5.0% title chance prices out to roughly +1900 fair, meaning the market is offering approximately 35% higher odds than the numbers suggest he deserves.

Novak Djokovic (+700) is the odd one out on this list, and worth flagging precisely because it's not an inefficiency. Run the math—100/12.5%—and you land exactly on +700. The market has priced him to the decimal point. It's not a value bet in the classic sense, but for anyone who simply thinks a 24-time major champion being fairly assessed is a good thing, this is for you and one of the most honestly priced numbers on the entire board.

The America tax

If you're tempted to back the home favorites out of patriotism, then you need to know what you're paying for it. Taylor Fritz (+1100) and Ben Shelton (+1200) both carry a mere 2.9% title probability per Dimers—a fair price of roughly +3350 for each. However, the sportsbooks know exactly how popular home-country bets are at their own Grand Slam, and they're charging for it: both Americans are priced at less than a third of their model-implied fair value. Cheer for them all fortnight. Just don't fund it.

TENNIS BETS: Dimers will serve up the best tennis bets throughout the 2026 US Open

Women's draw: Some value at the top

Aryna Sabalenka (+320) is the deserved favorite, and surprisingly the oddsmakers have priced her quite well, with Dimers' women's tennis futures model liking her a touch more than the market does—28.6% against an implied 23.8%, which works out to a fair price near +250 (vs. the +320 on offer). It's a real edge, but at a price that short, in a best-of-three-sets format where one big-hitting opponent can have a career day, it's not where we're putting our money down. According to the model, the overlays worth chasing sit further down the board.

Iga Swiatek (+500) and Coco Gauff (+500) are both meaningfully overpriced. Dimers gives them 10.7% and 12.3% respectively—fair odds closer to +835 and +713—meaning both are trading well below what the model says they're worth. Naomi Osaka (+1100) is the worst number on the entire women's board: the model doesn't even place her within range of the leaders, yet the market is still charging a premium for the name recognition. All three: pass.

The Elena Rybakina play

Elena Rybakina (+1300) is the best price across both the men's and women's draw. Dimers' model has her at 16.8% to win the title—second only to Sabalenka, and comfortably clear of Swiatek, Gauff, and Pegula—which prices out to fair odds of roughly +495. Getting +1300 on a player the model rates as the field's clearest second favorite is the kind of gap that simply doesn't turn up often at a major.

American value: Jessica Pegula

If you want to back a home player without paying the America tax, Jessica Pegula (+1200) is the answer. Her 7.7% implied probability undersells Dimers' 11.2% forecast, with fair value sitting closer to +793. It's a smaller edge than Rybakina's, but it's a real one—and the rare American price this fortnight that actually favors the person placing the bet rather than the house taking it.