Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026

Tommy Paul and Carlos Alcaraz will lock horns in the fourth round of the US Open 2026 on Sunday.

Dimers' advanced tennis model projects Carlos Alcaraz as the most likely winner in this Paul vs. Alcaraz prediction.

This article offers a closer look at Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.

Paul vs. Alcaraz prediction and odds

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's Paul-Alcaraz men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Alcaraz an 80% chance of defeating Paul in the US Open 2026.

Additionally, Alcaraz has a 72% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Alcaraz (-5.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 37.5 games has a 61% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Carlos Alcaraz -459, Tommy Paul +350
• First Set: Paul +220, Alcaraz -278

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Alcaraz @ -459 via DraftKings
• First Set: Alcaraz @ -135 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 37.5 total games.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The US Open 2026 match between Tommy Paul and Carlos Alcaraz is scheduled to begin on Sunday at 2:00 PM ET.

• Who: Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz
• Date: Sunday, September 6, 2026
• Approx. Time: 2:00 PM ET/11:00AM PT
• Tournament: US Open Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Fourth round

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Carlos Alcaraz, with an 80% win probability, will likely beat Tommy Paul at the US Open 2026.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.