Sep 3, 2026
US Open bets today: Eight picks for Thursday ft. Swiatek vs. Podoroska [9/3/2026]
Read Article Paula Badosa vs. Coco Gauff prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get Badosa vs Gauff predictions for US Open 2026.
Paula Badosa will take on Coco Gauff in the second round of the US Open Women's Singles 2026 on Thursday.
Dimers' proven tennis model projects Coco Gauff as the most likely winner in this Badosa vs. Gauff prediction.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Badosa vs. Gauff prediction and odds
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's Badosa-Gauff women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives Gauff an 83% chance of defeating Badosa in the US Open 2026.
Additionally, Gauff has a 78% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Gauff (-5.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 19.5 games has a 52% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
- Moneyline: Coco Gauff -769, Paula Badosa +580
- First Set: Badosa +333, Gauff -455
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Moneyline: Badosa @ +580 via DraftKings
- First Set: Gauff @ -120 via DraftKings
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Paula Badosa to win.
Although Badosa is less than likely to win, she provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first serve details
The US Open 2026 match between Paula Badosa and Coco Gauff is scheduled to begin on Thursday at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Paula Badosa vs. Coco Gauff
- Date: Thursday, September 3, 2026
- Approx. Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Tournament: US Open Women's Singles 2026
- Round: Second round
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Coco Gauff, with an 83% win probability, will likely beat Paula Badosa at the US Open 2026.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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