Marta Kostyuk vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026

Marta Kostyuk and Ekaterina Alexandrova will lock horns in the third round of the US Open 2026 on Friday.

Dimers' proven tennis model projects Marta Kostyuk as the most likely winner in this Kostyuk vs. Alexandrova prediction.

This article offers further insights into Friday's match, including best bets and picks.

Kostyuk vs. Alexandrova prediction and odds

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's Kostyuk-Alexandrova women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Kostyuk a 76% chance of beating Alexandrova in the US Open 2026.

Additionally, Kostyuk has a 71% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Kostyuk (-3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 21.5 games has a 54% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Ekaterina Alexandrova +275, Marta Kostyuk -300
• First Set: Kostyuk -278, Alexandrova +220

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Kostyuk @ -300 via DraftKings
• First Set: Alexandrova @ -139 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Marta Kostyuk to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The US Open 2026 match between Marta Kostyuk and Ekaterina Alexandrova is scheduled to begin on Friday at 11:00 AM ET.

• Who: Marta Kostyuk vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova
• Date: Friday, September 4, 2026
• Approx. Time: 11:00 AM ET/8:00AM PT
• Tournament: US Open Women's Singles 2026
• Round: Third round

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Marta Kostyuk, with a 76% win probability, will likely beat Ekaterina Alexandrova at the US Open 2026.

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