Sep 2, 2026
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Read Article Jessica Pegula vs. Leylah Fernandez prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Pegula vs Fernandez predictions for US Open 2026.
Jessica Pegula will take on Leylah Fernandez in the third round of the US Open Women's Singles 2026 on Friday.
Dimers' proven tennis model projects Jessica Pegula as the most likely winner in this Pegula vs. Fernandez prediction.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's match, including best bets and picks.
Pegula vs. Fernandez prediction and odds
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's Pegula-Fernandez women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives Pegula an 82% chance of beating Fernandez in the US Open 2026.
Additionally, Pegula has a 76% chance of winning the first set, while the over 19.5 games has a 54% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
- Moneyline: Leylah Fernandez +440, Jessica Pegula -610
- First Set: Pegula -400, Fernandez +300
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Moneyline: Fernandez @ +440 via DraftKings
- First Set: Fernandez @ -125 via DraftKings
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Leylah Fernandez to win.
Although Fernandez is less than likely to win, she provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first serve details
The US Open 2026 match between Jessica Pegula and Leylah Fernandez is scheduled to start on Friday at 11:00 AM ET.
- Who: Jessica Pegula vs. Leylah Fernandez
- Date: Friday, September 4, 2026
- Approx. Time: 11:00 AM ET/8:00AM PT
- Tournament: US Open Women's Singles 2026
- Round: Third round
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Jessica Pegula, with an 82% win probability, will likely beat Leylah Fernandez at the US Open 2026.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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