Daniil Medvedev vs. Arthur Rinderknech prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's Medvedev-Rinderknech men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Medvedev a 74% chance of winning against Rinderknech in the US Open 2026.

Additionally, Medvedev has a 69% chance of winning the first set, while the under 39.5 games has a 58% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Arthur Rinderknech +240, Daniil Medvedev -278
• First Set: Medvedev -200, Rinderknech +162

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Medvedev @ -278 via DraftKings
• First Set: Rinderknech @ -140 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 39.5 total games.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The US Open 2026 match between Daniil Medvedev and Arthur Rinderknech is scheduled to begin on Friday at 11:00 AM ET.

• Who: Daniil Medvedev vs. Arthur Rinderknech
• Date: Friday, September 4, 2026
• Approx. Time: 11:00 AM ET/8:00AM PT
• Tournament: US Open Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Third round

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Daniil Medvedev, with a 74% win probability, will likely beat Arthur Rinderknech at the US Open 2026.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.