Aryna Sabalenka vs. Kamilla Rakhimova prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026

Aryna Sabalenka will take on Kamilla Rakhimova in the third round of the US Open Women's Singles 2026 on Friday.

Dimers' advanced tennis model projects Aryna Sabalenka as the most likely winner in this Sabalenka vs. Rakhimova prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's match, including best bets and picks.

Sabalenka vs. Rakhimova prediction and odds

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's Sabalenka-Rakhimova women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives Sabalenka a 91% chance of defeating Rakhimova in the US Open 2026.

Additionally, Sabalenka has an 86% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Rakhimova (+6.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 18.5 games has a 58% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Kamilla Rakhimova +1280, Aryna Sabalenka -2000
• First Set: Sabalenka -833, Rakhimova +500

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Rakhimova @ +1280 via DraftKings
• First Set: Rakhimova @ -110 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Kamilla Rakhimova to win the first set.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The US Open 2026 match between Aryna Sabalenka and Kamilla Rakhimova is scheduled to start on Friday at 11:00 AM ET.

• Who: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Kamilla Rakhimova
• Date: Friday, September 4, 2026
• Approx. Time: 11:00 AM ET/8:00AM PT
• Tournament: US Open Women's Singles 2026
• Round: Third round

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Aryna Sabalenka, with a 91% win probability, will likely beat Kamilla Rakhimova at the US Open 2026.

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