Alex Michelsen vs. Daniel Merida prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026

Alex Michelsen and Daniel Merida are scheduled to meet in the third round of the US Open 2026 on Friday.

Dimers' proven tennis model projects Alex Michelsen as the most likely winner in this Michelsen vs. Merida prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's match, including best bets and picks.

Michelsen vs. Merida prediction and odds

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's Michelsen-Merida men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives Michelsen a 63% chance of beating Merida in the US Open 2026.

Additionally, Michelsen has a 60% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Merida (+3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 38.5 games has a 54% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Daniel Merida +160, Alex Michelsen -189
• First Set: Michelsen -152, Merida +120

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Merida @ +160 via DraftKings
• First Set: Merida @ -111 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Daniel Merida to win the first set.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The US Open 2026 match between Alex Michelsen and Daniel Merida is scheduled to begin on Friday at 6:25 PM ET.

• Who: Alex Michelsen vs. Daniel Merida
• Date: Friday, September 4, 2026
• Approx. Time: 6:25 PM ET/3:25PM PT
• Tournament: US Open Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Third round

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Alex Michelsen, with a 63% win probability, will likely beat Daniel Merida at the US Open 2026.

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