Melbourne Storm vs. Penrith Panthers prediction: Panthers favored to win Thursday's NRL Round 25 matchup [8/20/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NRL matchup between the Panthers and Storm, forming part of our NRL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Panthers a 73.9% chance of defeating the Storm.

According to our model, the Panthers (-6.5) have a 56.1% chance of covering the spread, while the 42.5-point over/under has a 52.0% chance of going over,.

Panthers vs. Storm odds

We have sourced the best NRL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Panthers -244, Storm +188

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Panthers vs. Storm picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Panthers -6.5 @ -115 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Panthers @ -244 via BetRivers
• Total: Over 42.5 @ -115 via DraftKings

According to our NRL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Panthers to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Storm vs. Panthers game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's Australian rugby league game between the Storm and Panthers at AAMI Park is scheduled to begin at 5:50 AM ET.

• Who: Penrith Panthers vs. Melbourne Storm
• Date: Thursday, August 20, 2026
• Time: 5:50 AM ET/2:50AM PT
• Venue: AAMI Park

The NRL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with there even being games played in Vegas each season as of 2024.

Conclusion

We predict the Panthers, with a 73.9% win probability, will likely beat the Storm in Thursday's NRL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.