Newcastle Knights vs. Dolphins prediction: Dolphins favored to win Sunday's NRL Round 18 matchup [7/5/2026]

The Newcastle Knights will face the Dolphins in National Rugby League (NRL) action at McDonald Jones Stadium on Sunday, beginning at 2:05 AM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NRL model predicts the Dolphins as the most likely winner of the Dolphins vs. Knights game.

This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.

Knights vs. Dolphins prediction: Who will win Round 18 game?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NRL game between the Dolphins and Knights, forming part of our NRL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Dolphins a 67.0% chance of defeating the Knights.

According to our model, the Dolphins (-0.5) have a 66.8% chance of covering the spread, while the 50.5-point over/under has a 56.2% chance of staying under,.

Dolphins vs. Knights odds

We have researched the best NRL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Dolphins	Knights
H2H (Moneyline)	-123	-103
Line (Spread)	-0.5 (-115)	+0.5 (-115)
Total	o50.5 (-106)	u50.5 (-120)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Dolphins vs. Knights picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Dolphins -0.5	bet_rivers_in-115
Moneyline	Dolphins	bet_rivers_in-123
Total	Under 50.5	-120

According to our best NRL bets, the top play to make on this game is Dolphins -0.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Knights vs. Dolphins game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's Australian rugby league action between the Knights and Dolphins at McDonald Jones Stadium is scheduled to commence at 2:05 AM ET.

• Who: Dolphins vs. Newcastle Knights
• Date: Sunday, July 5, 2026
• Time: 2:05 AM ET/11:05PM PT
• Venue: McDonald Jones Stadium

The NRL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with there even being games played in Vegas each season as of 2024.

Conclusion

We predict the Dolphins, with a 67.0% win probability, will likely beat the Knights in Sunday's NRL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.