Why these 3 guys have sneaky touchdown upside in NFL Week 2

Week 1 handed out a few reminders that touchdown equity doesn't only live where the big-name recognition lies or only at the top of the NFL betting board.

Though Dimers' top five TD probabilities all cashed in Week 1, many scoring surprises (by sportsbook odds standards) came from players on new teams or those exploiting opportunity on the table, like D.J. Moore and Christian Watson, both featured in our touchdown round robin.

✅ Likely
✅ Watson
✅ Moore

Our longer shot TD RR cashes the x3 combo at odds of +4434 👌 https://t.co/CNN5Ooq8OX

— Dimers (@dimerscom) September 14, 2026

Dimers' NFL predictions model is now pointing at three more names in similar situations who carry touchdown upside in Week 2, thanks to evolving roles and some value identified against the books.

Whether in fantasy leagues, sports betting, or on prediction markets, these three players need to be on your radar come NFL Sunday.

1. Jayden Reed, Packers

A week after Christian Watson signaled his own breakout with 147 yards and a pair of scores in Green Bay's 39-22 Week 1 loss to the Vikings, Dimers likes his co-WR Jayden Reed for a similar step forward, thanks to a value signal in our NFL player props.

The box score won't jump off the page with just 3 catches for just 20 yards, but the target sheet tells the real story, as Reed's 7 looks were third-most on the team. He had just one regular-season game over his previous 25 in which he saw 7 targets.

The same math that had Watson in line for a Week 1 breakout applies to Reed in Packers vs. Jets (Sunday, 1pm). Green Bay entered the season with over 130 vacated targets from last year's offense, and even slotting in behind a clear Watson/Golden pecking order with Tucker Kraft anchoring the tight end spot, that's a career-best workload in waiting.

Our value on Jayden Reed vs. the Jets in Week 2.

The Packers' offense will be looking to put together a full 60 minutes after largely disappearing in the second half last week and should present a stiffer test against the Jets than New York's Week 1 opponent, the Titans.

Dimers' model has Reed's touchdown probability at 28.7%, well ahead of the market's +290 price against a Dimers fair line of +250.

2. Blake Corum, Rams

The Rams' Blake Corum carries the highest anytime-touchdown probability of any RB2 on Dimers' board this week at 36.7%, higher than some teams' actual lead backs, including the Saints' Travis Etienne and Seahawks' Jadarian Price, and the co-RBs of the Steelers' committee, Rico Dowdle and Jaylen Warren.

Corum ran 10 times for 54 yards to Kyren Williams' 11 carries for 41 in Week 1, and while a look at Dimers' NFL Player Projections hub shows Williams with the higher overall touchdown equity at 55.9%, just 18.7 projected rushing yards separate the two backs, thin enough that a single broken run erases the gap.

If Williams' Week 1 inefficiency lingers with touches staying close to even, that's a concern that only helps Corum.

Projections for the Rams backfield in Week 2.

The Rams face the Giants who bested the Cowboys in Week 1, but allowed three red zone scores: two of those from the 1-yard line, and two of them to RB Javonte Williams.

Our game-level Giants vs. Rams predictions (Monday 8.15pm) fit a script that helps Corum as well - the Rams are projected to cover the 7.5-point spread at 51.4% and rank among Dimers' most likely outright winners of the week in a get-right spot for a team that badly needs the bounce-back.

3. Kaelon Black, 49ers

In San Francisco's 27-7 rout of the Rams to open the season, third-round rookie RB Kaelon Black served as more than a backup or even a change-of-pace piece; he out-carried Christian McCaffrey on the ground, 14 rushes to 10, and not just in garbage time.

Dimers' model has taken notice, and Black's projection has jumped from what was 14.6 rushing yards and a 9.2% touchdown probability entering Week 1 to 39.4 yards and a 31.8% touchdown probability for Week 2 against Miami, fourth-highest on the Niners to find the end zone per our 49ers vs. Dolphins predictions (Sunday, 4.25pm).

While that jump is a positive signal for Black, there's some player prop value that catches our eyes as well. Dimers projects CMC to stay under 14.5 rush attempts at a 59.2% clip, which would keep the door open for Black to see another early-down split.

San Francisco is Dimers' top-projected team to win in Week 2 at 87%, with a 51.2% probability to cover a big 12.5-point spread, the only double-digit points of the week, and if the Niners jump out to a big lead again, leaning on Black to preserve McCaffrey down the stretch is well within reason.

Miami's defense was gashed for nearly 200 combined rushing and receiving yards by the Raiders' backfield in Week 1, with Ashton Jeanty alone going for 102 yards and two touchdowns.

If you can find Black anywhere north of +215 to score, Dimers' model says that's value.

Bet on NFL in 2026 with Dimers Pro

Every single player, team and betting insight in this article comes straight from Dimers Pro, your go-to resource for the NFL season, off to a hot start after Week 1.

You can find picks, props and predictions for every single NFL game this season via Dimers' NFL predictions.

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