Commanders vs. Cowboys prediction favors Dallas to win in NFL Week 2 [2026]

Since our Commanders-Cowboys predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Commanders and Cowboys, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Cowboys a 63.8% chance of defeating the Commanders in Week 2 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Cowboys winning 27-23.

Key factors favoring the Cowboys:

• Dallas Cowboys Offensive Efficiency
• Dallas Cowboys QB Change / Form
• Washington Commanders Defensive Efficiency

According to our model, the oddsmakers have got it right, and the Commanders and Cowboys each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 50.5 points also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 2 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Commanders +3.5 (+101) / Cowboys -3.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: Commanders +186, Cowboys -190
• Total: Over/Under 50.5 (+100/-104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Commanders +3.5 @ 50¢ via Kalshi
• Moneyline: Commanders @ 35¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 50.5 @ 50¢ via Polymarket

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Commanders to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Commanders vs. Cowboys TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Commanders vs. Cowboys?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Javonte Williams is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Commanders vs. Cowboys.

Our projections give Williams a 55.6% chance of scoring a TD at AT&T Stadium, while the running back is a 13.5% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Washington Commanders

• Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB): 45.5% probability
• Terry McLaurin (WR): 31.6%
• Jayden Daniels (QB): 29.3%
• Stefon Diggs (WR): 29.0%
• Rachaad White (RB): 27.1%

Dallas Cowboys

• Javonte Williams (RB): 55.6% prob.
• CeeDee Lamb (WR): 41.2%
• George Pickens (WR): 37.1%
• Jake Ferguson (TE): 25.9%
• Ryan Flournoy (WR): 20.7%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Washington Commanders

• Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB): 9.6% prob.
• Terry McLaurin (WR): 6.0%
• Jayden Daniels (QB): 5.5%
• Stefon Diggs (WR): 5.4%
• Rachaad White (RB): 5.0%

Dallas Cowboys

• Javonte Williams (RB): 13.5% prob.
• CeeDee Lamb (WR): 8.8%
• George Pickens (WR): 7.7%
• Jake Ferguson (TE): 5.0%
• Ryan Flournoy (WR): 3.8%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Commanders and Cowboys. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 2 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Commanders' Jayden Daniels is projected for 224 passing yards, while the Cowboys' Dak Prescott is expected to throw for a whopping 271 yards.

Commanders rushing

• Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 54 yds
• Jayden Daniels: 44 yds
• Rachaad White: 24 yds

Cowboys rushing

• Javonte Williams: 82 yds
• Emari Demercado: 17 yds
• Dak Prescott: 11 yds

Commanders receiving

• Terry McLaurin: 58 yds
• Stefon Diggs: 54 yds
• Antonio Williams: 32 yds
• John Bates: 18 yds
• Ben Sinnott: 15 yds

Cowboys receiving

• CeeDee Lamb: 80 yds
• George Pickens: 68 yds
• Ryan Flournoy: 35 yds
• Jake Ferguson: 32 yds
• Javonte Williams: 18 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 2 action between the Cowboys and Commanders at AT&T Stadium is scheduled to begin at 4:25 PM ET.

• Who: Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys
• Date: Sunday, September 20, 2026
• Time: 4:25 PM ET/1:25PM PT
• Venue: AT&T Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Cowboys, with a 63.8% win probability, will likely beat the Commanders in Week 2 of the NFL season.

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This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.