Updated Falcons-Steelers predictions after Cooper Rush named starting QB

Injuries are already shaking NFL betting in Week 1, and our Falcons vs. Steelers prediction has been updated to reflect Cooper Rush starting at QB in place of the injured Tua Tagovailoa.

Tagovailoa signed with the Falcons after Miami released him and won the starting job largely by default, with Michael Penix Jr. still working back from his ACL tear. An injury in Thursday's practice now hands the ball to 32-year-old Cooper Rush, who makes his first start in a Falcons uniform.

Projected outlook for Cooper Rush vs. Steelers

Rush isn't a stranger to spot starts.

Across seven seasons in Dallas, he went 9-5 as a starter when stepping in for an injured Dak Prescott, completing 60.7% of his throws for 91.1 yards per game with 20 touchdowns against 10 interceptions and an 83.8 rating, turning in the steady, game-manager production that most expect from a qualified backup.

With a comparable skill position group in Atlanta, Dimers' NFL player projections show 197.9 passing yards for him in this one, but the bigger story is what it means for the pieces around him.

WR1 Drake London projects for 60.7 yards and a 28.9% touchdown probability, while TE Kyle Pitts checks in at 41.8 yards and 19.6%; both numbers that would be higher in a more ideal situation, but far from the floor one might expect with a backup stepping in.

The clearest beneficiary should be RB Bijan Robinson. With a backup quarterback under center, Atlanta is more likely to lean even harder on its best offensive weapon.

Projecting for 83.3 rushing yards, 34.2 more through the air, and a game-leading 50.7% anytime-touchdown probability, the offensive funnel for Robinson looks even more on display with Rush under center.

Where's the value?

As for the Falcons' chances, Dimers still likes value on their side.

Though a 31.1% win probability at +235 offers little value, a stronger lean toward Atlanta covering +6.5 (54.7% probability with a 2.1% edge) offers a better play.

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