Buccaneers vs. Bengals prediction: Why Cincinnati is favored to win in NFL Week 1 [2026]

The Cincinnati Bengals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will meet in Week 1 of the NFL season at Paycor Stadium on Sunday, with kickoff at 1:00 PM ET.

Dimers' proven NFL model projects the Bengals as the most likely winner in this Buccaneers vs. Bengals prediction.

This article offers a closer look at this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks, backed by the same system that has dominated college football and NFL betting markets across multiple seasons.

Bucs vs. Bengals prediction and odds

Since our Buccaneers-Bengals predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Buccaneers and Bengals, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Bengals a 65.8% chance of defeating the Buccaneers in Week 1 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bengals winning 27-23. According to our model, the Bengals (-3.5) have a 52.6% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 50.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 1 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Buccaneers +3.5 (+100) / Bengals -3.5 (-104)
• Moneyline: Buccaneers +178, Bengals -186
• Total: Over/Under 50.5 (+100/-106)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Bengals -3.5 @ 51¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Bengals @ 65¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 50.5 @ 50¢ via Polymarket

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Bengals -3.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Buccaneers vs. Bengals TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Buccaneers vs. Bengals?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Chase Brown is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Buccaneers vs. Bengals.

Our projections give Brown a 50.8% chance of scoring a TD at Paycor Stadium, while the running back is an 11.2% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Bucky Irving (RB): 42.1% probability
• Emeka Egbuka (WR): 35.3%
• Kenny Gainwell (RB): 34.2%
• Chris Godwin (WR): 28.5%
• Cade Otton (TE): 22.7%

Cincinnati Bengals

• Chase Brown (RB): 50.8% prob.
• Ja'Marr Chase (WR): 50.6%
• Tee Higgins (WR): 44.5%
• Samaje Perine (RB): 20.8%
• Mike Gesicki (TE): 18.4%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Bucky Irving (RB): 8.9% prob.
• Emeka Egbuka (WR): 7.1%
• Kenny Gainwell (RB): 6.8%
• Chris Godwin (WR): 5.5%
• Cade Otton (TE): 4.2%

Cincinnati Bengals

• Chase Brown (RB): 11.2% prob.
• Ja'Marr Chase (WR): 11.2%
• Tee Higgins (WR): 9.3%
• Samaje Perine (RB): 3.7%
• Mike Gesicki (TE): 3.2%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Buccaneers and Bengals. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 1 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Buccaneers' Baker Mayfield is projected for 237 passing yards, while the Bengals' Joe Burrow is expected to throw for a whopping 276 yards.

Buccaneers rushing

• Bucky Irving: 60 yds
• Kenny Gainwell: 32 yds
• Baker Mayfield: 21 yds

Bengals rushing

• Chase Brown: 63 yds
• Samaje Perine: 20 yds
• Joe Burrow: 11 yds

Buccaneers receiving

• Emeka Egbuka: 62 yds
• Chris Godwin: 53 yds
• Cade Otton: 35 yds
• Kenny Gainwell: 25 yds
• Ted Hurst: 23 yds

Bengals receiving

• Ja'Marr Chase: 89 yds
• Tee Higgins: 67 yds
• Chase Brown: 27 yds
• Mike Gesicki: 27 yds
• Andrei Iosivas: 21 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 1 game between the Bengals and Buccaneers at Paycor Stadium is scheduled to commence at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
• Date: Sunday, September 13, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Paycor Stadium

NFL Week 1 promo

Using our full NFL Week 1 promo code guide, you can make the most of Dimers' Buccaneers vs. Bengals predictions with the offer below — Polymarket code "DIMERS" securing a $50 bonus on a $10 first deposit:

Conclusion

We predict the Bengals, with a 65.8% win probability, will likely beat the Buccaneers in Week 1 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.