NFL Week 1 Preview: DJ Moore, Malik Willis lead top-projected players on new teams

Free agency and the trade market reshaped plenty of NFL rosters this offseason, and few storylines carry more NFL betting juice into Week 1 than position players lining up in new threads for the first time.

New scenery can mean new opportunity, shaking up NFL betting strategies, and Dimers' model has NFL player projections for every game in the Week 1 NFL slate.

Using those NFL predictions, we've flagged four newcomers our model sees as making the biggest impact in Week 1 - one at each offensive skill position (QB, RB, WR and TE).

1. WR DJ Moore (Bills)

Buffalo went out and got Josh Allen a legitimate No. 1 receiver in the offseason, sending a 2026 second-round pick to Chicago for DJ Moore and getting a fifth-rounder back in the deal.

It's a swap that should work out for both sides; the Bears wanted to clear the runway for Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III, while the Bills addressed a receiving corps that finished ninth-lowest in the league in wide receiver yardage a season ago.

Moore already has history with new Bills offensive architect Joe Brady, who coached him in Carolina back in 2020 and got the best season of his career out of him at a career-high 18.1 yards-per-catch.

Dimers projects Moore for 51.7 receiving yards in his Bills debut against Houston, with a 26.8% anytime-touchdown probability and 11.2 PPR points.

There's no standalone player prop currently priced on Moore for this one, but that doesn't mean there's no value, as our model gives the Bills an edge on both the spread and the moneyline against the Texans, suggesting an impact right out of the gate for Moore and Allen.

2. QB Malik Willis (Dolphins)

A unique case on this last as Malik Willis is the only player who doesn't have a starting pedigree out of these four.

Miami released Tua Tagovailoa, and turned the offense over to Willis, a quarterback with six career starts. New head coach Jeff Hafley and general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan both worked with Willis in Green Bay, and they liked what they saw enough to hand him a three-year, $67.5 million deal with $45 million guaranteed.

Across four appearances with the Packers in 2025, he posted an 85.7% completion rate and a 145.5 passer rating; small samples, but not insignificant for a player getting his first real shot as a starter.

Dimers has Willis projected for 194.1 passing yards and 17.6 completions with a notable contribution on the ground, with 42.7 rushing yards and a 24.1% anytime-touchdown probability against the Raiders.

There's an edge on Willis in the passing game, but our bigger value is found in the game lines, where our model doesn't paint Miami as the 3.5-point underdog they are priced at.

3. RB David Montgomery (Texans)

Houston's ground game ranked 22nd in the league last season, and the front office didn't wait around to fix it, acquiring David Montgomery from the Lions before locking him up on a two-year, $16.5 million deal.

Montgomery, who split touches behind Jahmyr Gibbs in Detroit and still managed 716 yards on 158 carries, is walking into a presumed much larger workload in Houston.

Among other RBs debuting for new teams - Rico Dowdle (Steelers), Travis Etienne (Saints) and even Super Bowl LX MVP Kenneth Walker - Montgomery nearly clears all of them in Dimers' NFL player projections.

The Bills deployed one of the weakest rush defenses last season and while they addressed some of the issues in the offseason, Montgomery is in position to capitalize.

Dimers projects Montgomery for 58.2 rushing yards and 14.5 receiving yards in his Texans debut, with a 51.6% anytime-touchdown probability, the highest for any player in this article.

Bettors looking for an edge on Montgomery won't find one for an Anytime TD, but will find value in another touchdown market in our Best NFL Props.

4. TE Isaiah Likely (Giants)

After four seasons watching Mark Andrews put a ceiling on his target share in Baltimore, Isaiah Likely followed his old coach out the door this offseason, signing a three-year deal with the Giants to reunite with John Harbaugh.

Likely has a genuine chance to emerge as Jaxson Dart's top safety-valve target in an offense that needs another playmaker in the passing game.

Though Theo Johnson looks to be active for Sunday against the Cowboys, Likely projects as TE 1 with 38.7 receiving yards and a 23.7% anytime-touchdown probability, compared to 19.4 yards and a 14.1% chance for Johnson

Harbaugh has already praised Likely as "a hard guy to cover," and with Dart making his first start under a new head coach in a marquee Sunday night spot, an easy underneath and seam target for a young quarterback is exactly the kind of role that Likely can fill.

Bet on NFL in 2026 with Dimers Pro

Every single player, team and betting insight in this article comes straight from Dimers Pro, your go-to resource for the NFL season, already off to a successful start in college football.

You can find picks, props and predictions for every single NFL game this season via Dimers' NFL predictions.

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