NFL Week 1 betting recap: Where the Dimers model dominated and why it pays to follow

The first week of the NFL season is officially in the books, and what a kickoff to this year's campaign it was.

Derrick Henry, David Montgomery and Josh Allen are some of the players who stole the show on an action-packed first weekend of NFL betting. If you were utilizing our NFL predictions from the Dimers model, then you would have watched several valuable betting opportunities play out on NFL Sunday feautring those three players and more, all of which could have been found within Dimers Pro before Week 1.

Dimers Pro is the number one betting resource you need in your pocket this NFL season, and when paired with the Dimers App, now available during NFL season for the first time, you'll be able to find these types of betting insights week in and week out.

So, let's see where the Dimers model was most dialed in from this weekend's lineup.

Our top call-outs from Dimers

From Dimers' social media to editorial articles and the Dimers Podcast, these are the betting angles we highlighted throughout the week that came to fruition.

The headline of the week is in touchdowns, where we saw a high-scoring Week 1 resulting in a number of big hits from the Dimers model.

New team debuts go a perfect 4-0 on touchdowns

One of this writer's favorite pieces in our lead up to Week 1 was this look at the most impactful player at each offensive skill position who was debuting for a new team in Week 1.

QB Malik Willis, WR D.J. Moore, RB David Montgomery and TE Isaiah Likely all found the end zone on Sunday, with Montgomery picking up three touchdowns and Likely grabbing a pair on SNF.

Likely (+340) and Willis (+400) represented the longest odds of the two, with all four players coming up big for both bettors and fantasy teams.

Touchdown Round Robin cashes x3

Make that back-to-back Week 1s with a x3 on our touchdown robin, cashing three of our First TD scorers last season and three of our longer odds Anytime TD picks this year.

Each pick came with a data-backed case from the Dimers model, with some situational signals that put all five guys on our radar, cashing a +4434 TD parlay.

We'll be back with another one next NFL Sunday, so be sure to follow Dimers on X/Twitter!

Cash the x3 🔥

✅ Watson
✅ Moore
✅ Likely https://t.co/CNN5OopAZp

— Dimers (@dimerscom) September 14, 2026

Dimers' Top 5 TD probabilities go 5-0

It wasn't just our longshot targets that cashed in either, with Dimers' Top 5 touchdown scorers all finding the endzone a combined 11 times, with all of them scoring at least twice: Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Javonte Williams and Ashton Jeanty.

These five players came straight from our NFL Player Projections Hub, where we project every player's Anytime, First, 2+ and 3+ touchdown probabilities.

That's simply elite data at work, cutting past the noise and giving you an elite five-leg winner if you played the parlay, or a big-time round robin cash for those chasing multiple touchdowns for a bigger payout.

✅ Gibbs
✅ Henry
✅ Taylor
✅ Williams
✅ Jeanty

The RBs ate today. Who hit the parlay? 🤔 https://t.co/HAvTyStGMH

— Dimers (@dimerscom) September 14, 2026

Dimers' biggest wins

It's rarely a chalk week when betting on the NFL, and this past week, these underdogs and longshots made some noise.

Most importantly, they were all identified with a betting edge by our model via either our best NFL bets or best NFL player props.

Cardinals ML

Sometimes, the best signals from the Dimers model come in bunches, just like we aw with the Chargers vs. Cardinals in Week 1, the biggest upset from the opening weekend.

Not only did our model find an edge on the Cardinals at 28.0% against +400 odds, where a fair price would have been just +250, we also explicitly called out the negative edge on the Chargers to cover, suggesting they were both mispriced on the line and with too big of a spread, as well as cashing in on the under by nearly a full touchdown.

Our Cardinals vs. Chargers pre-game predictions.

David Montgomery 2+ Touchdowns

This is one of our favorite wins to hang our hat on, as we featured Montgomery in our new team debuts article, but also found a big edge on him to capitalize against a Bills rushing defense that ranked near the bottom of the league last season.

This bet would have been both in the Dimers App and in our Best NFL Props, with the 16.5% probability on Montgomery identifying fair odds of about +505, more than a full unit's worth of value based on a 1-unit bet.

Montgomery did it in spectacular fashion, cashing in with not one, not two, but three touchdowns, where he ranked tied for firth with a 3.5% probability to do so in Dimers' projections.

What the Dimers model said about these standout performances

The biggest player and team performances of the week - here's what our model predicted around those outcomes and where you might have found an edge in our NFL player projections:

Derrick Henry 3 touchdowns

Moving into third all-time in the NFL rushing touchdowns leaderboard with a three-TD performance in Week 1, Derrick Henry was Dimers' second-highest probability for a player to score three times at 5.9%, behind only Jahmyr Gibbs, who picked up a pair of scores.

Our Week 1 TD projections.

Bears 59-point outing

The Dimers model gave a 51.2% probability to the Over 46.5 in this game, along with a 60.2% chance of a Bears win and 54.7% probability to cover, which came with a small edge.

All three of those cashed thanks to a Bears record-setting Week 1, but equally as important is a huge Week 1 showing from the team we called out as the best overall value to win the Super Bowl.

They'll need to address the defensive performance, but it was a good start for a team with sneaky preseason value.

Where we missed in Week 1

Of course, not every prediction comes to fruition across a 16-game slate.

Notably, our top probability and biggest edge on the Dolphins to cover the spread and potentially upset the Raiders fell short, as Las Vegas largely cruised to a 27-13 win.

While our spread picks on the opening lines for Week 1 went an impressive 11-5 overall, the misses were top-heavy, with three of our top five teams (Cowboys, Chargers, Colts) failing to cover.

A @CaesarsSports oddsmaker on how Week 1 has gone so far:

“The first NFL Sunday of the season was a champagne-popping day for bettors, while the book was left cleaning up the corks.”

➡️8 of 10 most popular anytime TD scorers cashed

— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) September 14, 2026

Dimers' 2026-27 NFL betting resources for Week 2

• NFL Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every game, every day
• NFL Best Bets: Our top picks for every individual matchup
• Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Futures Odds: Who will win the Super Bowl?
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league