NFL player props today: Week 1 best props include Bryce Young [9/13/2026]

Bryce Young over 2.5 rushing attempts (-205)

• Edge: 6.1%
• Probability: 73.3%
• Game: Bears vs. Panthers (1:00PM ET)

Our model has found value on Carolina's Bryce Young over 2.5 rushing attempts. A probability of 73.3% gives this play an edge of 6.1% at -205 odds.

Alec Pierce under 3.5 receptions (-172)

• Edge: 5.6%
• Probability: 68.8%
• Projection: 2.8
• Game: Ravens vs. Colts (1:00PM ET)

Alec Pierce’s receptions prop shows a 5.6% edge at -172 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 2.8 receptions on the under 3.5 line.

Deshaun Watson under 4.5 rushing attempts (-130)

• Edge: 11.6%
• Probability: 68.1%
• Game: Browns vs. Jaguars (1:00PM ET)

The data highlights value on Deshaun Watson under 4.5 rushing attempts, with simulations showing a 68.1% probability and an 11.6% edge at -130.

Jerry Jeudy under 3.5 receptions (-174)

• Edge: 4.2%
• Probability: 67.7%
• Projection: 2.9
• Game: Browns vs. Jaguars (1:00PM ET)

Our model projects Jerry Jeudy to record 2.9 receptions today, creating an edge of 4.2% on the under 3.5 line at -174 odds.

Daniel Jones under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-168)

• Edge: 4.7%
• Probability: 67.4%
• Game: Ravens vs. Colts (1:00PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Daniel Jones under 1.5 passing touchdowns for Indianapolis, showing an edge of 4.7% at -168 odds.

De'Von Achane under 4.5 receptions (-147)

• Edge: 7.6%
• Probability: 67.1%
• Projection: 3.8
• Game: Dolphins vs. Raiders (4:25PM ET)

De'Von Achane’s receptions prop shows an edge of 7.6% at -147 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 3.8 today.

Malik Nabers under 5.5 receptions (-168)

• Edge: 4.2%
• Probability: 66.9%
• Projection: 4.7
• Game: Cowboys vs. Giants (8:20PM ET)

Our model projects Malik Nabers for 4.7 receptions for NY Giants, creating an edge of 4.2% on under 5.5 at -168 odds.

Kenny Gainwell over 20.5 rushing yards (-118)

• Edge: 12.5%
• Probability: 66.7%
• Projection: 32.3
• Game: Buccaneers vs. Bengals (1:00PM ET)

Our expert modelling projects Kenny Gainwell for 32.3 rushing yards, creating value on the over 20.5 line at -118 odds and a 12.5% edge.

Trey McBride under 6.5 receptions (-147)

• Edge: 6.4%
• Probability: 65.9%
• Projection: 5.7
• Game: Cardinals vs. Chargers (4:25PM ET)

A 6.4% edge on the under 20.5 receptions line makes Trey McBride a value play in Cardinals vs. Chargers, with our model projecting him for 5.7 receptions at -147 odds.

Tre Tucker under 4.5 receptions (-141)

• Edge: 7.3%
• Probability: 65.8%
• Projection: 3.9
• Game: Dolphins vs. Raiders (4:25PM ET)

Simulations project Tre Tucker for 3.9 receptions here, creating a 7.3% edge on the under 4.5 line at -141 odds.

NFL player prop summary: Week 1, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 1:59AM ET:

NFL promo for Week 1

Make the most of today's player props—including Bryce Young over 2.5 rushing attempts—with this Polymarket offer:

Conclusion

For September 13, 2026, our NFL prop bets feature players such as Bryce Young, Alec Pierce and Deshaun Watson. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.