NFL best bets today: Week 1 picks include Dolphins vs. Raiders play [9/13/2026]

Dolphins +3.5 (-117)

• Edge: 6.9%
• Probability: 60.8%
• Matchup: Dolphins vs. Raiders (4:25PM ET)

Our model has identified value on Dolphins +3.5 at -117 odds. A 60.8% probability produces an edge of 6.9%, making this the strongest play for today's NFL slate.

Bills vs. Texans Over 44.5 points (+102)

• Edge: 5.6%
• Probability: 55.1%
• Matchup: Bills vs. Texans (1:00PM ET)

Bills vs. Texans over 44.5 points carries a 5.6% edge and a probability of 55.1% at +102 odds, according to our model.

Bills ML (-111)

• Edge: 5.5%
• Probability: 58.1%
• Matchup: Bills vs. Texans (1:00PM ET)

Bills ML at -111 odds shows a 5.5% edge, supported by a 58.1% probability in simulations.

Browns vs. Jaguars over 40.5 points (+104)

• Edge: 4.6%
• Probability: 53.6%
• Matchup: Browns vs. Jaguars (1:00PM ET)

A 4.6% edge and 53.6% probability make Browns vs. Jaguars over 40.5 points a value play in the Browns vs. Jaguars matchup, per our model.

Cardinals ML (+413)

• Edge: 3.2%
• Probability: 22.7%
• Matchup: Cardinals vs. Chargers (4:25PM ET)

Cardinals ML at +413 odds presents a 3.2% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 22.7%.

Dolphins vs. Raiders Over 40.5 points (+104)

• Edge: 2.7%
• Probability: 51.8%
• Matchup: Dolphins vs. Raiders (4:25PM ET)

Our model finds value on Over 40.5 points in Dolphins vs. Raiders at +104 odds, supported by an edge of 2.7%.

Packers vs. Vikings Over 46.5 points (+104)

• Edge: 2.7%
• Probability: 51.7%
• Matchup: Packers vs. Vikings (4:25PM ET)

Our model has uncovered value on Packers vs. Vikings Over 46.5 points at +104 odds. A 51.7% probability produces a 2.7% edge, making this a strong play for today's NFL action.

Titans ML (-106)

• Edge: 2.7%
• Probability: 54.1%
• Matchup: Jets vs. Titans (1:00PM ET)

A 2.7% edge on a 54.1% probability makes Titans to win at -106 odds a solid value play in today's Jets vs. Titans matchup.

Bengals -3.5 (+100)

• Edge: 2.6%
• Probability: 52.6%
• Matchup: Buccaneers vs. Bengals (1:00PM ET)

Our model projects value on Bengals -3.5 at +100 odds. A 52.6% probability produces a 2.6% edge, making Bengals the favorable side in today's matchup.

Falcons ML (+257)

• Edge: 2.4%
• Probability: 30.4%
• Matchup: Falcons vs. Steelers (1:00PM ET)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Falcons to defeat Steelers at +257 odds shows a 30.4% probability and a 2.4% edge.

NFL best bets summary: Sunday, 9/13/2026

As of 1:36AM ET, here are our top NFL bets by edge recommended by our model:

List of upcoming NFL games to bet on [9/13/2026]

• Bears vs. Panthers (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Ravens vs. Colts (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Falcons vs. Steelers (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Browns vs. Jaguars (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Buccaneers vs. Bengals (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Jets vs. Titans (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Saints vs. Lions (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Bills vs. Texans (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Cardinals vs. Chargers (4:25PM ET, Sunday)
• Packers vs. Vikings (4:25PM ET, Sunday)
• Dolphins vs. Raiders (4:25PM ET, Sunday)
• Commanders vs. Eagles (4:25PM ET, Sunday)
• Cowboys vs. Giants (8:20PM ET, Sunday)

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Conclusion

Our NFL best bets are locked and loaded for September 13, 2026, featuring plays such as Dolphins +3.5 vs. Raiders and over 44.5 points in the Bills vs. Texans matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are rooted in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.