Dolphins vs. Raiders prediction favors Las Vegas to win in NFL Week 1 [2026]

The Las Vegas Raiders and Miami Dolphins will lock horns in Week 1 of the NFL season at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday, with kickoff at 4:25 PM ET.

Dimers' advanced NFL model projects the Raiders as the most likely winner in this Dolphins vs. Raiders prediction.

This article offers a closer look at this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks, backed by the same system that has dominated college football and NFL betting markets across multiple seasons.

Dolphins vs. Raiders prediction and odds

Since our Dolphins-Raiders predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Dolphins and Raiders, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Raiders a 58.2% chance of defeating the Dolphins in Week 1 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Raiders winning 21-19. According to our model, the Dolphins (+3.5) have a 60.8% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 40.5 points has a 51.8% chance of going over.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 1 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Dolphins +3.5 (-122) / Raiders -3.5 (+117)
• Moneyline: Dolphins +150, Raiders -156
• Total: Over/Under 40.5 (+104/-104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Dolphins +3.5 @ 55¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Dolphins @ 40¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 40.5 @ 49¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Dolphins +3.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Dolphins vs. Raiders TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Dolphins vs. Raiders?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Ashton Jeanty is most likely to score an anytime TD in Dolphins vs. Raiders.

Our projections give Jeanty a 50.0% chance of getting in for six at Allegiant Stadium, while the running back is a 15.3% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Miami Dolphins

• De'Von Achane (RB): 42.9% probability
• Malik Willis (QB): 24.1%
• Malik Washington (WR): 17.9%
• Greg Dulcich (TE): 15.1%
• Caleb Douglas (WR): 14.5%

Las Vegas Raiders

• Ashton Jeanty (RB): 50.0% prob.
• Tre Tucker (WR): 28.0%
• Michael Mayer (TE): 23.3%
• Jalen Nailor (WR): 22.7%
• Mike Washington (RB): 22.5%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Miami Dolphins

• De'Von Achane (RB): 13.0% prob.
• Malik Willis (QB): 6.4%
• Malik Washington (WR): 4.6%
• Greg Dulcich (TE): 3.8%
• Caleb Douglas (WR): 3.6%

Las Vegas Raiders

• Ashton Jeanty (RB): 15.3% prob.
• Tre Tucker (WR): 7.2%
• Michael Mayer (TE): 5.8%
• Jalen Nailor (WR): 5.7%
• Mike Washington (RB): 5.6%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Dolphins and Raiders. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 1 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Dolphins' Malik Willis is projected for 194 passing yards, while the Raiders' Kirk Cousins is expected to throw for 211 yards.

Dolphins rushing

• De'Von Achane: 72 yds
• Malik Willis: 42 yds
• Jaylen Wright: 11 yds

Raiders rushing

• Ashton Jeanty: 60 yds
• Mike Washington: 32 yds
• Kirk Cousins: 3 yds

Dolphins receiving

• Malik Washington: 33 yds
• Caleb Douglas: 32 yds
• De'Von Achane: 30 yds
• Greg Dulcich: 29 yds
• Chris Bell: 25 yds

Raiders receiving

• Tre Tucker: 50 yds
• Michael Mayer: 44 yds
• Jalen Nailor: 43 yds
• Jack Bech: 24 yds
• Ashton Jeanty: 22 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 1 matchup between the Raiders and Dolphins at Allegiant Stadium is scheduled to begin at 4:25 PM ET.

• Who: Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders
• Date: Sunday, September 13, 2026
• Time: 4:25 PM ET/1:25PM PT
• Venue: Allegiant Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Raiders, with a 58.2% win probability, will likely beat the Dolphins in Week 1 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.