Packers vs. Vikings prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win in NFL Week 1 [2026]

Since our Packers-Vikings predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Packers and Vikings, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Vikings a 55.4% chance of defeating the Packers in Week 1 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Vikings winning 24-22. According to our model, the Packers (+2.5) have a 52.7% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 45.5 points has a 52.4% chance of going over.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 1 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Packers +2.5 (-104) / Vikings -2.5 (+100)
• Moneyline: Packers +120, Vikings -122
• Total: Over/Under 45.5 (-108/+106)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Packers +2.5 @ 51¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Vikings @ 55¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 45.5 @ 52¢ via Novig

According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Packers +2.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Packers vs. Vikings TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Packers vs. Vikings?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, MarShawn Lloyd is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Packers vs. Vikings.

Our projections give Lloyd a 37.7% chance of scoring a TD at U.S. Bank Stadium, while the running back is an 8.6% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Green Bay Packers

• MarShawn Lloyd (RB): 37.7% probability
• Christian Watson (WR): 32.6%
• Tucker Kraft (TE): 30.7%
• Jayden Reed (WR): 27.5%
• Matthew Golden (WR): 21.4%

Minnesota Vikings

• Justin Jefferson (WR): 34.9% prob.
• Jordan Mason (RB): 34.2%
• Aaron Jones (RB): 31.0%
• Jordan Addison (WR): 29.7%
• Jauan Jennings (WR): 23.3%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Green Bay Packers

• MarShawn Lloyd (RB): 8.6% prob.
• Christian Watson (WR): 7.2%
• Tucker Kraft (TE): 6.6%
• Jayden Reed (WR): 5.8%
• Matthew Golden (WR): 4.4%

Minnesota Vikings

• Justin Jefferson (WR): 8.3% prob.
• Jordan Mason (RB): 8.1%
• Aaron Jones (RB): 7.2%
• Jordan Addison (WR): 6.8%
• Jauan Jennings (WR): 5.1%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Packers and Vikings. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 1 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Packers' Jordan Love is projected for 245 passing yards. The Vikings' Kyler Murray is expected to throw for 225 yards.

Packers rushing

• MarShawn Lloyd: 47 yds
• Chris Brooks: 16 yds
• Kaleb Johnson: 15 yds

Vikings rushing

• Jordan Mason: 50 yds
• Aaron Jones: 33 yds
• Kyler Murray: 30 yds

Packers receiving

• Christian Watson: 61 yds
• Jayden Reed: 48 yds
• Matthew Golden: 45 yds
• Tucker Kraft: 45 yds
• MarShawn Lloyd: 14 yds

Vikings receiving

• Justin Jefferson: 77 yds
• Jordan Addison: 48 yds
• T.J. Hockenson: 31 yds
• Jauan Jennings: 29 yds
• Aaron Jones: 18 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 1 action between the Vikings and Packers at U.S. Bank Stadium is scheduled to start at 4:25 PM ET.

• Who: Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
• Date: Sunday, September 13, 2026
• Time: 4:25 PM ET/1:25PM PT
• Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium

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Using our full NFL Week 1 promo code guide, you can make the most of Dimers' Packers vs. Vikings predictions with the below DraftKings Sportsbook offer:

Conclusion

We predict the Vikings, with a 55.4% win probability, will likely beat the Packers in Week 1 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.