Dimers' NFL player projections data reveals who will step up for injured stars in Week 2

No NFL week is without injury. Some big, some small, and others with a status unknown, these injuries are one of the quickest and most frustrating ways to throw a wrench into NFL betting strategies.

Week 1 delivered its usual round of injury fallout, and three situations stand out the most heading into Week 2: a pair of banged-up Ravens wideouts, the Chargers' best offensive weapon to start the year knocked out mid-game, and a Seahawks QB change that's already moved the number. 

Here's what the situations look like, and what the Dimers Pro NFL predictions say about who steps up and which teams get value in Week 2.

Baltimore Ravens

Injured WRs: Zay Flowers (hamstring) and Ja'Kobi Lane (wrist)

Zay Flowers was in the middle of a career-best day with 150 yards, five catches and a touchdown against the Colts, before a hamstring injury forced him out.

He wasn't ruled out on the spot and is set for an MRI, but hamstring injuries carry real re-aggravation risk, and Baltimore has every incentive to be cautious with its top receiver rather than rush him back for a Week 2 tilt against a lesser threat in the Saints.

Complicating matters in the passing game for Baltimore, rookie Ja'Kobi Lane, who otherwise would profiled as the next man up, fractured his wrist and is to undergo surgery, sidelining him for several weeks and thinning out Baltimore's receiver room right when it needs depth most.

That leaves WR Rashod Bateman and TE Mark Andrews as the clear beneficiaries if Flowers can't go.

Projections for Mark Andrews vs. the Saints.

Via our Ravens vs. Saints predictions, Dimers currently projects Bateman as the team's WR2 with 39.9 yards and a 26% touchdown probability, but it's Andrews, Lamar Jackson's longtime safety valve and co-leader in targets last week, who stands out with a 32.9% TD probability, which would make him Baltimore's second-most likely scorer behind Derrick Henry if Flowers sits.

Even with the receiver uncertainty, the model still likes the Ravens' floor: it projects a 53.7% chance Baltimore covers the 7.5-point spread at home against New Orleans.

Los Angeles Chargers

Injured WR: Ladd McConkey (ribs)

With Keenan Allen gone and a true WR1 role up for grabs, Ladd McConkey was the best player on the field for Los Angeles before he took a hit to the ribs in the 3Q and didn't return.

The Chargers' offense had already been struggling, but it visibly lost its rhythm once he exited, highlighting just how central he's become to the passing game. He's currently considered day-to-day, but any absence would be a significant swing for an offense that leaned on him early.

If McConkey sits, Quentin Johnston becomes the de facto WR1, and Dimers projects him for 42.9 yards and a 31.7% touchdown probability on 3.2 receptions in our Chargers vs. Raiders predictions.

The bigger opportunity may be in a crowded tight end room, where David Njoku's five targets led the position in Week 1; while all three Chargers tight ends project for similar yardage, Njoku carries roughly a 5-point edge in touchdown probability at 17.2%.

McConkey's absence would vacate the seven targets he saw in Week 1, a number that likely would have climbed into double digits in a comeback attempt had he stayed in the game, opening the door for the passing game to redistribute volume as Los Angeles looks for a bounceback against the Raiders.

Seattle Seahawks

Injured QB: Sam Darnold (glute)

Of the three situations, Sam Darnold's is the only confirmed absence.

He was ruled out for Week 2 after leaving Week 1 early in the first quarter with what the team has since described as a "very unique soft-tissue injury," and Seattle has not put a firm return timeline on it, thought the team has said it doesn't expect it to be long-term.

For at least another week, Drew Lock steps in, this time with a full week of practice reps under center rather than an emergency relief appearance.

The passing-game hierarchy shifts down with Lock in over Darnold.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba still projects as the top receiver in the matchup, but well off his roughly 90-yard baseline with Darnold healthy; Dimers has him at 71.8 yards and 5.6 receptions with a (still game leading) 39.1% touchdown probability.