Cowboys vs. Giants prediction favors Dallas to win ‘SNF’ Week 1 [2026]

The New York Giants will square off with the Dallas Cowboys in NFL Week 1 action at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, starting at 8:20 PM ET.

Dimers' proven NFL model projects the Cowboys as the most likely winner in this Cowboys vs. Giants prediction.

This article offers further insights into this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks, backed by the same system that has dominated college football and NFL betting markets across multiple seasons.

Cowboys vs. Giants prediction and odds

Since our Cowboys-Giants predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Cowboys and Giants, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Cowboys a 61.3% chance of defeating the Giants in Week 1 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Cowboys winning 25-22. According to our model, the Giants (+3.5) have a 54.7% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 47.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 1 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Cowboys -3.5 (+115) / Giants +3.5 (-117)
• Moneyline: Cowboys -160, Giants +156
• Total: Over/Under 47.5 (-104/+102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Giants +3.5 @ 54¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Cowboys @ 62¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 47.5 @ 50¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Giants +3.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Cowboys vs. Giants TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Cowboys vs. Giants?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Javonte Williams is most likely to score an anytime TD in Cowboys vs. Giants.

Our projections give Williams a 54.0% chance of scoring a TD at MetLife Stadium, while the running back is a 14.2% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Dallas Cowboys

• Javonte Williams (RB): 54.0% probability
• CeeDee Lamb (WR): 35.6%
• George Pickens (WR): 32.7%
• Jake Ferguson (TE): 22.7%
• Ryan Flournoy (WR): 17.6%

New York Giants

• Cam Skattebo (RB): 46.9% prob.
• Malik Nabers (WR): 31.2%
• Jaxson Dart (QB): 28.8%
• Isaiah Likely (TE): 22.3%
• Tyrone Tracy (RB): 22.1%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Dallas Cowboys

• Javonte Williams (RB): 14.2% prob.
• CeeDee Lamb (WR): 8.0%
• George Pickens (WR): 7.2%
• Jake Ferguson (TE): 4.7%
• Ryan Flournoy (WR): 3.5%

New York Giants

• Cam Skattebo (RB): 10.6% prob.
• Malik Nabers (WR): 6.2%
• Jaxson Dart (QB): 5.7%
• Isaiah Likely (TE): 4.2%
• Tyrone Tracy (RB): 4.2%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Cowboys and Giants. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 1 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Cowboys' Dak Prescott is projected to have a big game with 270 passing yards. The Giants' Jaxson Dart is expected to throw for 215 yards.

Cowboys rushing

• Javonte Williams: 81 yds
• Emari Demercado: 22 yds
• Dak Prescott: 10 yds

Giants rushing

• Cam Skattebo: 55 yds
• Jaxson Dart: 35 yds
• Tyrone Tracy: 29 yds

Cowboys receiving

• CeeDee Lamb: 81 yds
• George Pickens: 72 yds
• Jake Ferguson: 36 yds
• Ryan Flournoy: 32 yds
• KaVontae Turpin: 16 yds

Giants receiving

• Malik Nabers: 62 yds
• Isaiah Likely: 39 yds
• Malachi Fields: 30 yds
• Darnell Mooney: 26 yds
• Theo Johnson: 20 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 1 game between the Giants and Cowboys at MetLife Stadium is scheduled to begin at 8:20 PM ET.

• Who: Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants
• Date: Sunday, September 13, 2026
• Time: 8:20 PM ET/5:20PM PT
• Venue: MetLife Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Cowboys, with a 61.3% win probability, will likely beat the Giants in Week 1 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.