Browns vs. Jaguars prediction favors Jacksonville to win in NFL Week 1 [2026]

Since our Browns-Jaguars predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Browns and Jaguars, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Jaguars a 78.8% chance of defeating the Browns in Week 1 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Jaguars winning 25-15. According to our model, the Jaguars (-8.5) have a 50.8% chance of covering the spread, while the 40.5-point over/under has a 53.6% chance of going over.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 1 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Browns +8.5 (+104) / Jaguars -8.5 (-104)
• Moneyline: Browns +376, Jaguars -388
• Total: Over/Under 40.5 (+104/-106)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Browns +8.5 @ 49¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Browns @ 21¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 40.5 @ 49¢ via Novig

According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 40.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Browns vs. Jaguars TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Browns vs. Jaguars?

According to our model, Bhayshul Tuten is most likely to score an anytime TD in Browns vs. Jaguars.

Our projections give Tuten a 40.2% chance of scoring a TD at EverBank Stadium, while the running back is a 9.9% chance of registering the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Cleveland Browns

• Quinshon Judkins (RB): 34.7% probability
• Harold Fannin (TE): 23.2%
• KC Concepcion (WR): 18.2%
• Denzel Boston (WR): 15.7%
• Jerry Jeudy (WR): 13.7%

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Bhayshul Tuten (RB): 40.2% prob.
• Chris Rodriguez (RB): 33.7%
• Parker Washington (WR): 31.9%
• Brian Thomas (WR): 26.5%
• Trevor Lawrence (QB): 25.5%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Cleveland Browns

• Quinshon Judkins (RB): 9.2% prob.
• Harold Fannin (TE): 5.7%
• KC Concepcion (WR): 4.3%
• Denzel Boston (WR): 3.7%
• Jerry Jeudy (WR): 3.2%

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Bhayshul Tuten (RB): 9.9% prob.
• Chris Rodriguez (RB): 7.9%
• Parker Washington (WR): 7.4%
• Brian Thomas (WR): 5.9%
• Trevor Lawrence (QB): 5.7%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Browns and Jaguars. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 1 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Browns' Deshaun Watson is projected to have a quiet game with 185 passing yards. The Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence is expected to throw for 242 yards.

Browns rushing

• Quinshon Judkins: 54 yds
• Deshaun Watson: 21 yds
• Dylan Sampson: 18 yds

Jaguars rushing

• Bhayshul Tuten: 52 yds
• Chris Rodriguez: 41 yds
• Trevor Lawrence: 20 yds

Browns receiving

• KC Concepcion: 39 yds
• Harold Fannin: 39 yds
• Jerry Jeudy: 36 yds
• Denzel Boston: 31 yds
• Quinshon Judkins: 13 yds

Jaguars receiving

• Parker Washington: 59 yds
• Jakobi Meyers: 43 yds
• Brian Thomas: 43 yds
• Brenton Strange: 38 yds
• Travis Hunter: 16 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 1 action between the Jaguars and Browns at EverBank Stadium is scheduled to commence at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
• Date: Sunday, September 13, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: EverBank Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Jaguars, with a 78.8% win probability, will likely beat the Browns in Week 1 of the NFL season.

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This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.