Ravens vs. Colts prediction: Why Baltimore is favored to win in NFL Week 1 [2026]

The Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens will meet in Week 1 of the NFL season at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday, with kickoff at 1:00 PM ET.

Dimers' proven NFL model projects the Ravens as the most likely winner in this Ravens vs. Colts prediction.

This article offers a closer look at this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks, backed by the same system that has dominated college football and NFL betting markets across multiple seasons.

Ravens vs. Colts prediction and odds

Since our Ravens-Colts predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Ravens and Colts, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Ravens a 59.8% chance of beating the Colts in Week 1 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Ravens winning 25-23. According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Ravens and Colts each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 48.5-point over/under has a 51.5% chance of going over.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 1 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Ravens -2.5 (-113) / Colts +2.5 (+111)
• Moneyline: Ravens -144, Colts +140
• Total: Over/Under 48.5 (+104/-113)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Colts +2.5 @ 47¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Ravens @ 59¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 48.5 @ 49¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Colts +2.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Ravens vs. Colts TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Ravens vs. Colts?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 1, Derrick Henry is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Ravens vs. Colts.

Our projections give Henry a 58.4% chance of getting in for six at Lucas Oil Stadium, while the running back is a 15.1% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Baltimore Ravens

• Derrick Henry (RB): 58.4% probability
• Zay Flowers (WR): 30.9%
• Mark Andrews (TE): 30.3%
• Lamar Jackson (QB): 24.9%
• Rashod Bateman (WR): 20.9%

Indianapolis Colts

• Jonathan Taylor (RB): 55.5% prob.
• Tyler Warren (TE): 29.1%
• Josh Downs (WR): 23.5%
• Alec Pierce (WR): 20.8%
• Keenan Allen (WR): 17.5%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Baltimore Ravens

• Derrick Henry (RB): 15.1% prob.
• Zay Flowers (WR): 6.4%
• Mark Andrews (TE): 6.2%
• Lamar Jackson (QB): 4.9%
• Rashod Bateman (WR): 4.0%

Indianapolis Colts

• Jonathan Taylor (RB): 15.0% prob.
• Tyler Warren (TE): 6.4%
• Josh Downs (WR): 5.0%
• Alec Pierce (WR): 4.3%
• Keenan Allen (WR): 3.6%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Ravens and Colts. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 1 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Ravens' Lamar Jackson is projected for 224 passing yards, while the Colts' Daniel Jones is expected to throw for 241 yards.

Ravens rushing

• Derrick Henry: 83 yds
• Lamar Jackson: 43 yds
• Justice Hill: 12 yds

Colts rushing

• Jonathan Taylor: 76 yds
• Daniel Jones: 15 yds
• Seth McGowan: 8 yds

Ravens receiving

• Zay Flowers: 71 yds
• Mark Andrews: 38 yds
• Rashod Bateman: 32 yds
• Ja'Kobi Lane: 26 yds
• Justice Hill: 16 yds

Colts receiving

• Josh Downs: 52 yds
• Tyler Warren: 50 yds
• Alec Pierce: 36 yds
• Keenan Allen: 35 yds
• Jonathan Taylor: 21 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 1 matchup between the Colts and Ravens at Lucas Oil Stadium is scheduled to commence at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts
• Date: Sunday, September 13, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Ravens, with a 59.8% win probability, will likely beat the Colts in Week 1 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.