Falcons vs. Steelers prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win in NFL Week 1 [2026]

Since our Falcons-Steelers predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Falcons and Steelers, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Steelers a 70.8% chance of defeating the Falcons in Week 1 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Steelers winning 23-17. According to our model, the Falcons (+6.5) have a 52.4% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 40.5 points has a 50.0% chance of staying under.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 1 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Falcons +6.5 (-104) / Steelers -6.5 (+102)
• Moneyline: Falcons +257, Steelers -264
• Total: Over/Under 40.5 (-106/+108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Falcons +6.5 @ 51¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Falcons @ 28¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 40.5 @ 48¢ via Polymarket

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 40.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Falcons vs. Steelers TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Falcons vs. Steelers?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Bijan Robinson is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Falcons vs. Steelers.

Our projections give Robinson a 48.6% chance of scoring a TD at Acrisure Stadium, while the running back is a 14.1% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Atlanta Falcons

• Bijan Robinson (RB): 48.6% probability
• Drake London (WR): 28.1%
• Kyle Pitts (TE): 19.0%
• Brian Robinson (RB): 16.0%
• Jahan Dotson (WR): 11.8%

Pittsburgh Steelers

• Rico Dowdle (RB): 36.2% prob.
• Jaylen Warren (RB): 36.0%
• DK Metcalf (WR): 32.8%
• Michael Pittman (WR): 27.6%
• Pat Freiermuth (TE): 19.9%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Atlanta Falcons

• Bijan Robinson (RB): 14.1% prob.
• Drake London (WR): 7.0%
• Kyle Pitts (TE): 4.5%
• Brian Robinson (RB): 3.7%
• Jahan Dotson (WR): 2.7%

Pittsburgh Steelers

• Rico Dowdle (RB): 9.8% prob.
• Jaylen Warren (RB): 9.7%
• DK Metcalf (WR): 8.6%
• Michael Pittman (WR): 7.0%
• Pat Freiermuth (TE): 4.8%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Falcons and Steelers. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 1 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Falcons' Cooper Rush is projected for 197 passing yards, while the Steelers' Aaron Rodgers is expected to throw for 216 yards.

Falcons rushing

• Bijan Robinson: 83 yds
• Brian Robinson: 24 yds
• Cooper Rush: 5 yds

Steelers rushing

• Rico Dowdle: 50 yds
• Jaylen Warren: 49 yds
• Aaron Rodgers: 4 yds

Falcons receiving

• Drake London: 60 yds
• Kyle Pitts: 42 yds
• Bijan Robinson: 34 yds
• Jahan Dotson: 21 yds
• Olamide Zaccheaus: 19 yds

Steelers receiving

• DK Metcalf: 53 yds
• Michael Pittman: 46 yds
• Pat Freiermuth: 30 yds
• Germie Bernard: 21 yds
• Jaylen Warren: 21 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 1 matchup between the Steelers and Falcons at Acrisure Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Atlanta Falcons vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
• Date: Sunday, September 13, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Acrisure Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Steelers, with a 70.8% win probability, will likely beat the Falcons in Week 1 of the NFL season.

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This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.