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Jazz vs. Thunder prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Sunday's NBA matchup [4/5/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Utah Jazz vs Oklahoma City Thunder predictions for NBA Sunday.
The Oklahoma City Thunder will face the Utah Jazz in NBA action at Paycom Center on Sunday, beginning at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results and today’s injury updates, Dimers' proven NBA model projects the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Jazz vs. Thunder game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Thunder lineup will feature players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, while the Jazz will be led by Brice Sensabaugh, Ace Bailey and Kyle Filipowski.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Jazz vs. Thunder prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NBA matchup between the Jazz and Thunder, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Thunder a 95% chance of defeating the Jazz. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 129-108.
According to our model, the Jazz (+23.5) have a 62% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 239 points has a 54% chance of staying under.
Jazz vs. Thunder odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Jazz | Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +23.5 (-105) | -23.5 (-115) |
| Moneyline | +2200 | -6502 |
| Total | o239 (-110) | u239 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Jazz vs. Thunder picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jazz +23.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Jazz | +2200 |
| Total | Under 239 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets for Sunday, the top play to make on this game is Jazz +23.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Jazz vs. Thunder player props
Betting on Jazz vs. Thunder NBA player props? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Paycom Center.
Brice Sensabaugh is expected to lead the Jazz with 20 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to have 31 points, 4 rebounds and 7 assists for the Thunder.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Jazz prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Jazz are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Sensabaugh | 20 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 35 |
| Ace Bailey | 17 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 32 |
| Kyle Filipowski | 15 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 36 |
| Cody Williams | 14 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 30 |
| K. Chandler | 10 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 27 |
Thunder prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Thunder:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 31 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 53 |
| Jalen Williams | 17 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 34 |
| Chet Holmgren | 16 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 36 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 13 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 26 |
| I. Hartenstein | 9 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 28 |
Jazz vs. Thunder game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's action between the Thunder and Jazz at Paycom Center is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Utah Jazz vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
- Date: Sunday, April 5, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Paycom Center
Conclusion
We predict the Thunder, with a 95% win probability, will likely beat the Jazz on Sunday, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected for a game-high 53 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Jazz vs. Thunder insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our responsible gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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